NWS Shreveport Partners... An excessive heavy rainfall event is - TopicsExpress

NWS Shreveport Partners... An excessive heavy rainfall event is shaping up for at least the northwest half of the Four State Region, including all of Northeast Texas...Southeast Oklahoma...Southwest Arkansas and the Northwest third of Northern Louisiana beginning late on Monday and continuing through the day Wednesday. This afternoon...a deep upper level trough was cutoff across the Four Corners Region of the country and this trough will make very slow eastward progress into the plains through the middle of the work week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase across the region with the aid of daytime heating on Monday. Thunderstorms will become more numerous across North Central Texas into Central Oklahoma Monday Evening and this activity will begin to make its march eastward towards our region late Monday Night. Some severe thunderstorms will be possible with this convection late Monday through Monday Night...with large hail and damaging thunderstorms winds the likely result. However...no widespread severe weather is anticipated at this time. Instead...the slow nature of the ejecting upper level trough and a slow moving cold front will result in the training of convection across Northeast Texas...Southeast Oklahoma...Southwest Arkansas and portions of Northern Louisiana. Therefore...excessive heavy rainfall is the biggest concern with this upcoming weather system. The front will move into our region late Monday Night into Tuesday but the rain will not end with the front. Post frontal...upper level forcing will likely result in additional heavy rainfall behind the front Tuesday through Wednesday as well. The graphic below is a depiction of possible rainfall totals for the event beginning Monday and continuing through Wednesday. With heavy rainfall observed across Northeast Texas...Southeast Oklahoma...Southwest Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana last week...the excessive heavy rainfall with this upcoming event will likely result in the necessity of a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the Four State Region. Users need to prepare for the possibility of Flash Flooding across the region late Monday through Wednesday...especially across flood prone and poor drainage areas. Mike Berry Senior Forecaster NWS Shreveport, La. WinnParishOEP...11:15am12may2014...hhf...

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