New Great Game in Central Asia The classical “Great Game” was a tough competition and rivalry between the two empires of the Britishers and the Russians in 19th century for supremacy in Central Asia. Now there is a new version of the Great Game is ongoing in Central Asia among the world’s Great Powers. Main stakeholders in the new tussle are the US, UK and other NATO members on the one hand, and, Russia, China on the other. While India, Pakistan, Iran and Japan are in the way to have full access to the Central Asian Republics (CARs). Central Asia is an area whose importance to the United States and other emerging powers is growing. Yet it also is an imperiled region because it faces numerous constant challenges stemming from pervasive internal misrule and the continuing interest of terrorist organizations in overthrowing local regimes. Its significance is, first, strategic due to its proximity to the war on terrorism and major actors like Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and India. Only secondarily is it important by virtue of its energy. Both the Great Games have a similarity that their battle ground has been the Central Asia, but the new one has more complicated dynamics. The former one was between the two powers while the new one is the tug-of-war among many. It is multifaceted as covers not only political hostility but also the strategic, energy and possibly in future, a military encounter. This individual race for dominance may convert into a bloc or alliance politics between the NATO and SCO where small powers will have to take one side or another. Many have already observed the current passive hostility and predicted a future clash between North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. But the engagement are so confused that cooperation is parallel with mistrust. The US, NATO members, Russia and China are in struggle to cultivate and sustain cordiality with CARs. Russia and China have the advantage that they are partners with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Khazakstan and Uzbekistan under the umbrella of SCO. The US is also welcomed by the Central Asian states in the Global War on Terror. Washington has offered to the five Central Asian states to play a constructive role in US/ISAF peace operations in Afghanistan. The CARs have embraced the role out of the desire to ensure stability next door in Afghanistan, an interest in strong partnership with the US to guard against excessive relience on Russia or China, and the ability to benefit from opportunities for rent-seeking. Some of the CARs have already provided military bases to the US, on which there are reservations from the Russians and Chinese side. Hence Russia and China view any U.S. presence in Central Asia as a standing challenge, if not a threat, to their vital interests which inherently are imperial in nature and entail a diminution of the effective sovereignty of Central Asian states. Russia and China both are investing a huge amount in the region for the purpose to maintain security, fulfill their energy needs and block the US way for future scramble. The “Pipe-Line Politics” is a new adventure in Central Asia for stiffing the footstep over there. There is Central Asia-Center gas pipeline system which run from Turkemenistan via Uzbekistan and Khazakistan to Russia. Although the wasbulit between 1960 and 1980 but there have been various commitments among the signatories for renovation and upgradation. In 2003, the late President of Turkmenistan SaparmuratNiyazov proposed to renovate existing systems and construct a new parallel pipeline to the western branch. On 12 May 2007, Vladimir Putin of Russia, NursultanNazarbayev of Kazakhstan and GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow of Turkmenistan signed a memorandum for renovation and expansion of the western branch of the pipeline. On 20 December 2007, Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan finalized agreement on construction of the Caspian Coastal Pipeline parallel to the existing CAC-3 pipeline (known as Bekdash–Europe pipeline or Okarem–Beineu pipeline). On 20 December 2007, Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan agreed to construct a new Caspian pipeline parallel to the existing CAC-3 pipeline. The pipeline is planned be built between Belek compressor station in Turkmenistan and Alexandrov Gay compressor station. Similarly, Central Asia-China gas pipeline is another project which connects Turkeministan to (Xinjiang) China through a pipeline. On 3 April 2006, China and Turkmenistan signed a framework agreement on the pipeline construction and long-term gas supply. In June 2007, during his visit to China, Turkmeni President GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow signed an accord to speed up implementation of the Turkmeni-Chinese gas pipeline project. On 30 April 2007, Uzbekistan and China signed an agreement on the construction and exploitation of the pipelines Uzbekistan section. The Khazakstan-China oil pipeline is another example of the energy network and strong interest in the region by the great powers. In such a scenario where Russia is seriously devising its policies, not to allow the US for future role in the region..and the US is planning for more grab in the post US/NATO forces withdrwal from Afghanistan, can ignite the geoplotics of the region. Russia’s current policy regarding Ukraine, which is in close proximity with Central Asia, has already made the US angry and suspicious for the upcoming days. It is clear that the US is geographically far away from Central Asia, but doesn’t want to lose its status and overwhelming interest in the region. Focusing the deteriorated relationship between the US and Iran…and Iran’s good ties with Russia and China, can challenge the US stature and change the regional security, economic and geopolitical contours. In the case of Pakistan and India (who are also observers in SCO), former is enjoying a working relationship with the US by the ups and downs combination, and the later has convergence with Washnigton on various issues. Similarly, Pak-Russia bond is not stronger than the Indo-Russia linkage. The great powers are using now smart power for a soft influence and avoiding the realpolitik. Looking to the current picture, it is blurred for Central Asia which may becomes clear after the draw-down of the US/NATO forces from Afghanistan.
Posted on: Mon, 31 Mar 2014 17:04:45 +0000
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