New INSIGHT: I usually cringe when I read a comment by a skeptic arguing that correlation does not prove causation. Of course, it’s true that correlation does not prove causation. It’s even true that correlation does not always imply causation. There are many great examples of spurious correlations which demonstrate clearly just how silly it is to extrapolate cause from correlation. And the problem is not trivial. Headlines in popular press articles alone can be very damaging as most people simply accept them as true. BUT… I cringe because I am afraid that this oversimplification leads people to think that correlation plays no role in causal inference (inferring that X causes Y). It does. In fact, it plays a very important role that skeptics should be just as aware of as the sound bite correlation does not imply causation. And that is that causation cannot be logically inferred in the absence of a correlation. What’s more, that sound bite does nothing to educate people about how and when we should infer cause. So let’s take a look at both problems.
Posted on: Fri, 03 Oct 2014 17:20:22 +0000
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