Nigeria is a nation of keg of powder running along strong ethnic divisions. She is currently ranked seven in the world most populous nations with capability of over forty million military ages and likely militias in conflict situation from different ethnic groupings. She is currently having the highest circulation of light arms in the region and one of such in the world; making her susceptible and attractive to private military companies in Europe and America. With a weak government and structure and a fragile democracy that was inherited it is a miracle that the nation has managed to hold on together for so long. The president and his team I must say have fared well so far in state craft management. They deserve to be applauded. Iraq and Afghanistan were both 28 and 32 million people respectively before they became a failed state. The purpose of foreign interest was dissimilar. The former was largely on American appetite for oil and regime change with excuse of weapon chemical factories (WCF) in Iraq; the latter was a campaign on opium trade and the cleaning up of the mujahidin that was supported by the American government during the Russian incursion into the Afghan Mountains. The Nigerian case has both; oil and terrorism!! It will sap the economies of foreign governments to bring peace to Nigeria should the country become a failed state. This will lead to a long and bitterer experience than what was seen in the inter-war period of 1967- 70. With the country nearing a political precipice and slowly drifting towards chaos impediments to statelessness must be confronted without reservation. It took thirty months and two million lives of the Ibos before peace could be restored about the same number of casualties and over twenty five years for the southern Sudanese to gain their freedom. By estimation that number of casualty will occur within four weeks of start of the conflict; considering the level of ethnic hate crimes between tribes. The indicators are crystal. There is a growing effort to collapse the government from within. It is not far from what happened with the forbodo party in Rwanda. Anti-state activities will firstly assume anti party activities with the objective of stretching government excuses to a limit and water down the influence of the party without recourse to rebuilding purpose. Left without strong party ideology and support; different and dangerous opinions will become rife in the society while it is allowed to grow. Antagonism will arise from within which will spread and affect formations. This will give room to attracting alien interest within and beyond our frontiers. The next stage is the division and likely collapse of the assembly which I believe is already in progress at this level of tussle for presidential power; the state has covertly become stateless with the players exuding nonpartisan spirit and overtly at war on ethnic loquaciousness. if not checked will culminate into full scale crises.
Posted on: Thu, 12 Sep 2013 06:03:00 +0000
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