No real changes to the Saturday forecast as of now. Models are still inconclusive on a solution. The GFS is a weaker storm than the Euro, largely in part to an upper level trough the Euro sees digging a bit further into the southern states. This would help filter in more cold air as well as increase a jet streak that would feed moisture into the system, hence a stronger system than the GFS solution. Track is also an uncertainty at this point. With the path this storm will take, the circulation may only be +/- 30 miles from all snow vs all precipitation types. There are still too many variables. As far as track, the Euro and CMC bring us a storm close enough for the possibility at a major snowfall, but that would depend on the exact intensity. A stronger storm pulls in more cold air. There would be more snow if the Euro pans out, but there could still be freezing rain mixing in as the Euro sees a shallow layer of above freezing air aloft. The GFS and NAM keep the system further out to sea, bringing only a glancing blow, while still bringing in the potential for all precipitation types. With all the data Ive seen to this point, the most likely scenario looks to be around 4-8, with the higher amounts closer to NYC and further inland, and along the northern tier of Long Island. The lower amounts would be along the southern tier of the island and eastern Suffolk County as there will likely be more mixing in those areas. The precipitation would start as snow and/or wintry mix, becoming rain/snow/wintry mix during the day, then turning to all snow during the afternoon into the evening. The next few model runs will be pivotal in determining exact precipitation amount. But, as you can see, were dealing with a difficult storm to predict, so be ready for anything. Youd think at only 36 hours out, wed have a better handle on this. These models have been all over the place.
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 04:06:37 +0000
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