Nomura poll#THE African National Congress’s (ANC’s) share of the vote could drop about 10 percentage points in the 2014 general elections, whose results will also prove important in that they will determine how the ruling party reacts to the risk of losing power in 2019. This is according to an emerging markets report on South Africa by financial services group Nomura. The report was compiled by Peter Attard Montalto, the Japanese bank’s emerging markets economist, covering South Africa and emerging Europe. The report predicted on Wednesday that the ANC’s share of the vote would drop to 56.2% from 2009’s 65.9%. The drop in support, Nomura said, would be as a result of the arrival of new political players such as Agang SA and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) as well as "born-free-ers" voting for the first time. Further, the Democratic Alliance (DA) would increase its national share of the vote by 10.3 percentage points to 27%, while newcomers Agang SA and the EFF would take 6% and 4%, respectively. The report, which noted a large margin of error because of a lack of firm polling data, is likely to be the first of many as the elections, scheduled for April or May 2014, draw closer. Political parties also are likely to conduct their own polling as they formulate strategies for contesting the elections. The ANC, which devoted its last national executive committee meeting in July to how to improve its public image and preparing for its election manifesto, is likely to stress the party’s achievement in government in the past 20 years. But campaigning has already started. Speaking to voters in KwaZulu-Natal on Wednesday, ANC deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa warned against trusting new parties. ANC supporters should go out and campaign for the party as "the new parties would promise people everything but it is the ANC that has the track record of delivering basic services", he said. Mr Ramaphosa visited Mpumalanga township, between Durban and near Pietermaritzburg, where he addressed hundreds of ANC volunteers and school children. Further, he visited the home of former ANC member and Robben Island prisoner Matthews Meyiwa who died in 2002. In Johannesburg, Agang SA leader Mamphela Ramphele said the party did not comment on external polls as it relied on its own. Speaking at a University of Johannesburg Women’s Day event, she said door-to-door visits had convinced the party of the public appetite "for a fresh start", with even brief discussions on Agang’s policies leading from "curiosity to conversion". South Africa had failed to fully come to terms with its apartheid legacy and that this was threatening the construction of a society committed to constitutional democracy, Dr Ramphele said. According to the Nomura report, even if its predictions came true, there would be "no immediate, fundamental, policy reaction after the election to the likely loss of vote share, save for an increase in taxes to increase spending. It is far too early to make a firm call on the nature of the government after the election." Political analyst Steven Friedman cautioned against taking predictions, even those based on scientific polling, seriously this far from the elections. Previous elections had seen similar predictions of loss of support for the ANC, which the outcome did not bear out. Door-to-door polling so far from the elections could see even die-hard supporters promising not to vote for the ANC or switching to the opposition, Mr Friedman said. Polls tended to be "incredibly unreliable given very strong traditional party loyalties". In the heavily contested Gauteng province the Nomura report predicted that the ANC had a 40% chance of losing province. However, it said the DA would likely be required to form a coalition. The DA has given every indication it will expend significant resources in Gauteng. It is in the process of selecting an election candidate for the province’s premier. ANC Gauteng secretary David Makhura has maintained that the party’s own polling did not point to a risk of losing the province, and that the ANC was "comfortable".
Posted on: Mon, 16 Sep 2013 19:53:43 +0000
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