Not only Advani, 10 more reasons why Modi will find it hard to move to Delhi Hard to say of the country but there is a lot of unrest within the BJP and hardcore supporters of Gujarat CM Narendra Modi. Slogans of Modi for PM are gaining pitch. But nowadays, no one becomes the prime minister of India just on the basis of slogans. Gone is the era when Indira Gandhi would get on to the dais in a khadi sari and mouth slogans like Garibi Hatao and people would see a messiah. But Modi and his team are bent on proving that the messiah of changing India, the democracy, is him. This noise is also outside the party -- in cyber space. But beyond this din are some questions - 10 questions - answers to which Modi supporters have to look for. Without these answers, Narendra Modi can never become the prime minister of India. 1. BJP needs 272 seats in Lok Sabha 272 is the number the BJP could not achieve even when there was the noise of Abki bari Atal Bihari in 1998 and 1999. These were the two years when there was a BJP-led NDA government at the Centre. In 1998, the BJP fought from 388 seats and won 182 seats. A year later, riding the wave of the Kargil victory and the sympathy of losing the confidence motion in the Lok Sabha by one vote, the BJP assigned more seats to allies. The BJP contested 339 seats and again won 182 seats. Now lets talk about the last elections -- that is 2009. In it, after contesting on 433 seats, the BJP only managed 116 seats. Now the question is this, not only will Modi have to maintain this performance in the next election but also increase the numbers by one-and-a-half times. This is next to impossible. 2. No one wants to come along The other hurdles in Modi becoming the PM are his image and politics. Vajpayee became the prime minister only after he found new allies in several states and made the NDA family big, very big. But in the final year of his regime, most partnerships broke down. Only Akali Dal, JD-U and the Shiv Sena have been left behind. The trouble ahead for the NDA is to again bring closer old friends. It is said that Modi has a good political relationship with Jayalalithaa. But Amma hasnt yet made her stand clear. Naveen Patnaik is also firm on his stand of Ekla Chalo (walk alone) these days. Nitishs hatred is known to all. Mamata is worried about Muslim voters in West Bengal. If we talk about some new allies, the NCP is mired in allegations of corruption. The National Conference cannot get out of the Congress lap since its region has its own politics. So when they will not be able to make partnerships, will comments, shares and likes on Facebook make Modi the PM? 3. With so much infighting in the house, how will Modi play his innings? This is a house of 10 heads. No one might be openly stepping out against Modi for the time-being but Advani, Shivraj and the Sangh Parivar have signalled on and off that the one-man show wont work. Leaders like Sushma Swaraj may feel that though she has been in central politics for two decades and has mass appeal, a state leader is staking claim when it is time for the top post. The point to be noted is that Sushma has never called Modi the partys most popular leader. Arun Jaitley, who once used to be Modis Chanakya, is busy uprooting him, albeit with the calm of a lawyer. Rajnath is singing the Modi song but his existence and rise in the party has only been due to this. And the heaviest among them all, the eldest in the house, Advani, who has fallen silent for the time-being, has not missed the race yet. To encourage him stands a long battalion of dissatisfied party soldiers such as Gadkari and Sanjay Joshi. So till the time Modi becomes a non-controversial leader like Vajpayee in the party, how can he become the leader of the nation? 4. Remember what Nitish said If you want to do politics in the country, you cannot stay away from skullcap and tilak. The chief minister of Madhya Pradesh knows this. He meets people on Eid, goes to see off Hajjis and pays for nikah from government funds. But Modi just doesnt agree to do these. He has made it clear time and again that he believes more in building up the image of a strict administrator than change his image among Muslims. Whether the reason is the post-Godhra riots or image, the Muslim in this country becomes alert whenever he hears Modis name. Most of them feel that if Modi comes to power, the entire country will become like Gujarat for them. There will always be a shadow of fear and suspicion. Therefore, the moment Modis bid for the post is announced, Muslim voters in India will work on only one agenda - defeat Modi. Whoever looks capable of defeating the BJP candidate will stand to gain votes. 5. Party has no answers in Uttar Pradesh The BJP began sinking in Uttar Pradesh after 1998. Kalyan Singh was the chief minister and Rajnath Singh was busy sowing every possible thorn in his path. Kalyan Singh was so ostracised that after a year, he began plotting the defeat of the party while being the chief minister! As a result, the partys 57 MPs were reduced to 29. Kalyan Singh was expelled from the party and after Ramprakash Gupta, Rajnath became CM. He made a lot of announcements, a lot of promises but the partys Assembly seats in UP were reduced to 88. Rajnath came to the centre as minister and in 2004, BJPs condition deteriorated further. The situation now is such that the party is desperate to cross 10 seats in UP. A party that has the most Lok Sabha seats in UP used to claim that they ran the country. But the BJP is still in a bad shape in UP. Here, it is filled with spent leaders for whom it will be enough if they retain their seats. All of them are busy maneouvring with each other. In this scenario, if there is no answer in the BJP to politics in Uttar Pradesh, then the Delhi Durbar will just remain a dream. 6. The party only gets a zero in the south BJP loves the word south. In ideological debates, it is called a south-leaning party or a right-wing party. But nothing is right for the BJP in the countrys south. We saw the debacle in Karnataka. In Andhra Pradesh, a grassroots leader like Bandaru Dattatreya was sidelined to make way for Venkaiah Naidu, a leader with the Delhi stamp. It lost an ally like the Telugu Desam. Whenever it found some ground in Tamil Nadu, it was on partnerships. For now, the party is empty-handed in the state. Due to the blank slate in the south, the party will not be able to have a pan-India presence allowing it to knock on the doors of 7 Race Course Road even if it does well in the north. 7. Coalitions and policies wont work with one-man show Modi supporters will say the entire analysis is negative and wont concede. Ok, lets accept one of the contentions and assume that Modi will bring gains to the BJP, gather allies and get to the seat of power. Now the question is that after coming to power, it is even more difficult to run a government with partners. Vajpayee learnt these lessons after stumbling twice. In 1996, after taking oath, he couldnt manage allies and had to resign in 13 days. In 1998, he managed allies and the government ran for 13 months. Then Subramanian Swamys tea party happened where Amma met Sonia and the pawns were scattered. After this, the party could not manage the numbers and fell short by one vote in the no-confidence motion. These were the lessons Vajpayee remembered in 1999 and despite all the difficulties, his flexible political stance succeeded and allies could not engineer another no-confidence motion. But Modi is a one-man show; he is stiff, not flexible. When he could not match steps with people in his own party, how will he shepherd allies who keep changing as dictated by regional politics? 8. No experience whatsoever of parliamentary politics Till now, we had been talking about external things. Now let us look at Modis experience in Parliament. Vajpayee got to Parliament in the 1950s from UPs Balrampur. Other than a few breaks, he was in Parliament till 2004. Advani too has decades of parliamentary experience. The same thing can be said about Sushma, Jaitley and other central leaders. But Narendra Modi has seen Parliament only from the visitors gallery. Maneouvring, floor management and turning the direction of debates in Parliament is not as easy as addressing rallies. Modi has no experience of parliamentary politics. This fact goes well against him. Those who have long experience in Parliament can fill even Modi with fear. 9. Has he won anything outside Gujarat? Narendra Modi is the lion of Gujarat. Not only his supporters, we also believe this. After all, winning three Assembly elections on the trot is not a joke. But what about outside the state? Has the BJP been able to come to power in any other state using the Modi name? Will it be able to do so in the future? There is no answer to this. If we talk about the upcoming elections, in Rajasthan, the BJP is not dependent on Modi but Vasundhara. The party high command has given her a free hand and she would not like any interference. Shivraj too does not think of himself any less than Modi. Raman Singh too has been the CM since the time Modi became one. Delhi is the only state where Modi can openly play his cards. But the Aam Admi Party is here to spoil the game. This was the story of Assembly elections. In Lok Sabha elections, Modi will have a tougher task. Those projecting Modi for PM should answer if the Gujarat CM has come up with any strategy for Lok Sabha polls and what did it result in. 10. The post-Godhra riots taint yet to wash away Now lets talk about the one thing that raises the hackles of Modi supporters. The mark of Gujarat riots. Their own PM Vajpayee had said Rajdharma (duty of governance) should have been followed. Modi moved ahead of Gujarat riots but the country remembers that he has never, till date, openly said that what happened in Gujarat should not have happened. The state government should have crushed the rioters with maximum force. Instead of this, those who were opposed to the riots were slowly sidelined. Nothing will happen by flexing muscle or remaining silent. Because the country is still seeking answers from the Congress for the anti-Sikh riots of 1984. Sikhs are still furious with the Congress though the party has made a Sikh the PM. Modi does not even view the riots a taint, how will he apologise for it and as long as the riots besmirch his image, he will lack one strategic move in electoral fights.
Posted on: Sun, 09 Mar 2014 06:06:43 +0000
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