OK Geeks, here is an update with todays 12z GFS. This is the 12z GFS BUFKIT data. BUFKIT was orginally developed to allow operational forecasters to evaluate the atmosphere at point locations on an hourly basis. It is an excellent tool for convection as well as lake-effect snow. It was also developed before high resolution numerical modelling was available in the mainstream. So we developed a number of tools to help us evaluate the instability over the lakes (lake-induced CAPE and EL) and wind direction. Below you will see the GFS 12z run for Buffalo, NY. The top image shows the lake-induced CAPE (white and left y-axis) and EL (yellow and right y-axis). The bottom image shows the average wind direction from about 950mb through 700mb. The blue horizontal bar denotes a range of wind directions (~245-255 degrees) that line a band up over parts of metro Buffalo. The first image helps us to evaluate instability, the second shows where snow bands could set up. Buffalo looks like it will get its fair share of lake effect. Most will likely fall just south of the city as usual. Off Lake Ontario a similar scenario will play out. Of course, the Upper Great lakes will also get their fair share. I would watch SW Lower Michigan, I think they will get hammered !!
Posted on: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 00:09:26 +0000
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