ONE YEAR MAIDAN - A DECADE OF LOSSES Based on incomplete data for this year, present and future generations of Ukrainians have to face the consequences of the February coup still very many years. And the illusion of independence of Ukraine, which in 23 was allowed to play politicians will soon be completely replaced by a rigid external control. Speed commit fatal errors Ukrainian authorities amazing. Almost with no chance to avoid a default in the next year or CURRENT (without external assistance), Ukraine, with a light feeding their new leaders, turned into a war zone. After the start of ATO immediately became clear that the accounting of the Ukrainian economy no one does. If the authorities in the face, by the way, supposedly large financial expert - Yatsenyuk - calculated to the scale of problems that await Ukraine in the next 2-3 years, then of course, even the thought of a force on the Donbass not be swept in high Kiev offices. As well as the idea of breaking trade and economic relations with Russia. But since this scenario seemed unlikely, became an absolute reality, quite the key figures to show how severe will the coming years for ordinary Ukrainians. Whether there will be Immediately after coming to power of the opposition, the International Monetary Fund has promised to Ukraine financial support for economic reforms. Credit program was agreed on 17 billion. Dollars. In response, the Kyiv executive cut social programs and raised housing prices in the spring. But the successes of the Ukrainian authorities to reform the economy in August forced the IMF to suspend tranches. The fact that the fund stipulated the small nuance - it is a stable exchange rate, which of course could not remain so in a military conflict in the Donbas and trade policy of self-isolation. When the rate crept down and got almost 16 hryvnia per dollar, instead of the next tranche of the IMF in Kiev sent a group of experts who gave a negative assessment of the situation - reform is bad, and the rapid devaluation of the hryvnia has led to a chronic shortage of liquidity in the banking system. Verdict - need more help in the amount of 15 billion. Dollars, or more than 8% of Ukraines GDP. About the same 8%, according to the forecast Goldman Sachs, will be reduced Ukraines GDP in the current year. The probability of this, and even more, the fall is confirmed by the index of industrial production, which in January-November fell more than 10% compared to the same period last year. This figure is in turn corresponds to the assessment of damages from the countrys industrial potential conflict in the Donbass, which was recently announced by the president and Poroshenko. According to him, 20% of the industrial potential of Ukraine were in the zone P, 10% of them - destroyed. The other 10% of the industry either can not function without raw material suppliers and subcontractors, either in anticipation of the protracted conflict owners close their factories Donbass. For example, a group of ISD oligarch Sergei Taruta already canned Alchevsk - one of the largest steel plants in Ukraine. Since the Donetsk and Lugansk region in GDP of Ukraine in peace time is about 15.7%, in the long run, it is obviously going on losses close to 15-16% of GDP. And this is not the limit, because the plant closures in the Donbas deprived of raw materials and finished products are many companies all over Ukraine. If we add to this the Crimea, which is estimated by the World Bank gave Ukraine the order of 3% of GDP, the amount of it is 18-19%. From other current losses - losses on the curtailment of trade with Russia is estimated at 5 billion. $ Annually, or about 3% of GDP. Estimated Focus economics, trade deficit of Ukraine in 2014 will amount to 8.7 billion. Dollars, and by 2018 will reach 16.1 billion. Total is already at least 24% of the economy lost. Treacherously bad for Kiev authorities are things in general, enterprises in Ukraine. Thus, according to the State Statistics Service, the financial results before taxation of large and medium-sized enterprises in January-September 2014 showed that 44.2% of enterprises have completed this period with a loss of 168 billion hryvnia, which is 15% of GDP trehkvartalnogo Ukraine. But much more flashy figure is a sharp reduction in foreign exchange reserves and growing public and external debt. Despite the decline in government debt due to the devaluation, it is still at a critical level. External debt in foreign currency has grown significantly and, depending on the results of the year will be about 90-100% of GDP.For timely repayment of external obligations and avoid default, Ukraine this year burned more than 50% of gold reserves. The remaining 9.9 billion. Not even enough to provide quarterly imports. Government suicide is not discouraged At the end of February, Prime Minister Yatsenyuk spoke of unpopular measures, which have to go to avoid default, christened his ministers suicide. This feature has become extremely relevant when the Cabinet began a rapid economic reforms in parallel introduction of troops in Donbass. A few days ago the government Arseniya- pulyavlob approved budget of Ukraine for 2015. And to remedy the catastrophic situation, the best thing that could make a progressive government Yatsenyuk - a reduction of budget expenditures by 1-1.5% of GDP. At the same time the budget was extremely antisocial, paradoxical distortions and, most importantly, with the retention of key corruption schemes through which traditionally an outflow of capital abroad. Of crying is worth noting that in the budget-2015 is planned to cut by 20.2% spending on education and 39.5% of health costs. Remarkable for such trifles, as a rejection of the indexation of pensions, removal of subsidies housing, refusal to pay child benefits and reduction of disability benefits. This significantly increase the budget of the Ministry of Defense and law enforcement agencies. In addition, Yatsenyuk left in the budget subsidy Naftogaz of $ 31.5 billion USD. (2 billion more. Dollars). After numerous scandals gas has long been known that these subsidies - a feeding trough for officials and oligarchs close. Even Kiev revolution dignity did not make the authorities to abandon barefaced thieves schemes. Another interesting article from an astronomical sum - 36.5 billion UAH. budget money to recapitalize the banking system. I wonder how many will get Oschadbank, which is headed by a childhood friend Yatsenyuk - Andrew Lush? Or banks that are in the field of influence Poroshenko, including personal bank president - International Investment Bank? At that time, as huge tax breaks - formally or informally keep the oligarchs who control the raw materials and the energy sector - including Kolomoisky and Akhmetov, Ukrainian authorities intend to introduce in 2015 for Ukrainians new taxes on cars, a special fee on imported goods, property taxes and military training. Very curious about the background of this budget optimism, which the authors of the budget charged macroeconomic targets for next year. Cabinet expects that economic growth will be around 1.7% (despite a broken Donbass and significant loss of markets). Inflation is expected to reach 12%, provided that this year inflation has already exceeded 21%. A budget deficit, which this year will be about 6% in the next - is scheduled at 3%. But the wonder is not worth such a forecast. Kiev is struggling to keep a good face on a disgusting game. Because at stake is foreign aid that will avoid a default in the current year. In Kiev expect slip and in 2015, drawing as positive picture. It is in order to get additional assistance from the IMF, Ukraine went out of their order not to have to recognize themselves bankrupt, repayable even coupons for Russian Eurobonds. But foreign lenders, it seems, are beginning to understand that trust Kiev authorities is not necessary. Reaffirmation of the West in much doubt the adequacy of the new leadership - the appointment of import ministers in key positions. As you know, the Minister of Economic Development and Trade Aivaras Abromavicius already outlined a new principle of relations between Ukraine and foreign creditors: guarantee of solvency of the country for its obligations become strategic enterprises, which, according to the minister, you must transfer the management of a US investment fund. It is obvious that the current government the West needs exactly up to the announcement of default, to then connect to the work of a liquidation commission, which determines what and to whom Ukraine must pass in order not to be left without foreign aid. Bleak prospects Even according to rough estimates, the loss of Ukraine in 2014-2015 in value terms amounted to 41-43 billion. Dollars. Next, the most interesting. According to the Merrill Lynch, with the 9 billion. Debt formed this year to the IMF and other creditors, in 2015-2020 Ukraine has to pay about 43 billion. Dollars of foreign debts. Not counting such nonsense as payment for future deliveries of gas and other energy resources, it is more than 60% of GDP projected by the end of 2014. To overcome the economic losses from the war and to pay current debt within 5 years, Ukraines economy should grow by at least 10% annually. But even in this case, by 2020 Ukraine will return to that from which passionately ran on Independence - to the level of well being in 2013. And with the growth of 1-3%, which is also unlikely in the current circumstances, Ukraine will need 25-50 years to recover. Again, not to mention any development over achieved in the era of Yanukovych. Another option, and most likely, is the growth of external debt in excess of 150% of annual GDP, followed by the introduction of external governance, which Abromavicius minister, in fact, already been announced. Given that, according to the State Statistics greater than 44% of large and medium-sized enterprises - the main taxpayers - working at a loss, to repay debts Ukraine will be secured by operating companies, natural resources, land and cheap labor. americasdonewrongs.blogspot.no/2014/12/one-year-maidan-decade-of-losses.html?spref=tw
Posted on: Sun, 28 Dec 2014 01:15:32 +0000
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