Oh my God, I wish the science was settled so I wouldnt have to read things like this anymore. But if you want facts rather than fantasy you have to read lots of shit. You should know going in shes not firmly against global warming theory. But she is honest enough to confess that the theory, as currently understood, is wrong, at least in important details, and shes willing to go there, at least in a speculative way, and consider the possibility that the theory is wrong in the main as well. She seems extremely skeptical of last years spin that the ocean is hiding huge amounts of heat by some unexplained mechanism. She does seem to see some plausibility in another theory, the stadium wave theory, which isnt terribly surprising -- the Stadium Wave hypothesis is her own pet theory. But this seems to me a pure speculation. Shes offering a possible explanation for how various forces come together (well, they nearly conspire) to push temperatures down (which then offsets, I guess, the increase in temperatures predicted by Global Warming theorists). We are very far from The Science Is Settled when were still thrashing about for the best speculation as to why temperatures arent rising as predicted. You cant say the Science is Settled and then propose the speculation that maybe the ocean is hiding heat by some unknown mechanism (and hiding it, by the way, in some place we cant actually find or measure), or the speculation of a chaotic system that self-organizes towards a cooling tendency. Either of these speculations may turn out to be true -- but at the moment, they are mere speculations, which not only arent proven but are still in fairly early stages of theorization. That is, theyre still pretty half-baked. Theyre hardly past the brainstorming phase. A theory is as strong as it its weakest proof. Global Warming now relies, unavoidably, not only on mere speculations, but on speculations people cant even agree upon (in a The Speculation is Settled sort of consensus). This reduces all of global warming theory to the level of mere speculation.
Posted on: Fri, 07 Mar 2014 05:05:00 +0000
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