Ok, some basic back story for those not aware of what is at stake in Crimea and the Ukraine in general. 1. Putin is playing to a domestic audience. He is playing tough for the ethnic nationalists in his immediate orbit. He no longer cares about the internationalists who have been urging Russias integration into the world order and economic diversification beyond oil and natural gas. 2. His crackdown on Pussy Riot, his corrupt Sochi Olympic show (all benefiting his ethnic nationalist cronies and former KGB peeps), and now the annexation of Crimea are ALL of a piece: to maintain his power inside the Kremlin. He lets the oil-i-garchs do what they want as long as they let him do what he wants. When they dont tow the line, they go to jail. So, essentially, all effective internal dissent within Russia has come to an end. 3. Like all dictators covering up massive corruption (in Putins case, the Sochi Olympic boon-doogle was about to come to light), its vitally important to create a major distraction. Wag the Dog: Moscow Edition. Perfect solution: stage a mock crisis in Crimea (where ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians had gotten along very well until the recent Moscow-manufactured ethnic rivalry started). As I have previously noted here on FB, Putin knew well he could get away with this (Ukraine had no nukes, the world was giving him some love post-Sochi, and the U.S. public was tired of war thanks to the Iraq misadventure). 4. There is no such thing as a rightful Russian sphere of influence in the Ukraine. If you believe this canard, then you are victim of Soviet-style Russian propaganda. The truth is that there were not many Russians in the Ukraine until the Stalin-engineered forced Russ-o-fi-cation of the Ukraine in the early 1930s. Just like the Chinese invasion of Tibet, if you want a more recent example. So, it is a bold-faced lie to say that Russia has any legit interests in the Ukraine that can supersede Ukrainian sovereignty. This is trumped-up propaganda, as my high school debate partner Jim OBrien made very clear in the Washington Post op-ed he wrote with former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright this Friday past. Though their recommendations are a bit soft, Jim and Madeleines analysis is spot on. See below. 5. Given this backdrop, we can clearly see that Putin has invented this crisis for domestic consumption and because he knows that Europa is so pacifist and the U.S. leadership so weak that he can get away with it. It is Munich redux. And it will not only engender greater nuclear proliferation, as I have previously noted, it will greatly impede our ability to solve the crises in Iran and Syria. Thank you, Mr. Obama, for keeping your eye on the ball. Not. washingtonpost/opinions/what-next-for-ukraine/2014/03/21/dab50db8-b131-11e3-a49e-76adc9210f19_story.html
Posted on: Tue, 25 Mar 2014 20:05:18 +0000
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