On Sunday, economically troubled Brazil re-elected Workers Party head Dilma Rouseff, a former member of Marxist guerilla groups in that country, as president. On Monday, when the markets opened around the world, there was a big “sell” order on Brazil. Both the currency and the stock market fell to lows not seen in a while. . A long-running joke says Brazil has a great future and always will. It is one of the most resource-rich countries on earth. It is the fifth largest country in the world by area and population, third largest by area if you exclude the frozen-tundra countries Russia and Canada. . But when you look at prosperity, you find they are 82nd in per capita GDP, 81 in economic freedom, 73 in integrity, etc. You can see their various rankings at en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_rankings_of_Brazil. . A visitor from Mars looking at color-coded maps of the world showing GDP per capita, corruption, economic freedom, etc. would point to Africa and Latin America and ask, “What’s wrong with those continents?” . The answer to what’s DIFFERENT about those continents would be race, culture, and language. But they speak Spanish in Spain and Portuguese in Portugal and those countries are not so screwed up as Latin America and Africa. That leaves races and culture. The races in Latin America are described at en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Latin_America. Generally they are European, black, Native American, and surprisingly from recent immigration, Japanese and Chinese. . Are we allowed to wonder if race is a cause of the various chronic problems in Latin America and Africa? No. It is an impermissible question. . I’ll ask it anyway. We have those same races in America and Canada. Do they do well economically in North America? They do much better here. Many do quite well. But on average, only the Japanese and Chinese in America do great as groups. The Chinese and Japanese diasporas do great around the world. The Latin American diaspora, which is essentially only in the U.S., performs at a below-average level as a group, but they do much better here than there. . What’s different for Latin Americans in the U.S. compared to those who remain in the continent of their birth? Culture and the races of the others they deal with. English is also a more functional language in the current world. . It is a bit misleading to use the word European when describing ethnic make up of the Western Hemisphere. You can see the difference in the languages partly and in the ancestry. North America was mainly northern Europeans originally. Latin America was originally southern Europeans. Does Southern Europe now do less well economically than northern Europe? Yep, but not as bad as Latin America. . An interesting fact about race is that Latin Americans often LIE about their race. If you read the link I gave above to ethnic groups in Latin America, you will see that they use both “self-reported” and DNA-based studies to answer the what is the ethnic makeup of Latin America question. . In contrast, I don’t think North Americans lie about their ancestry any more. Many Jews used to, especially if they fled from Nazis. Two U.S. Secretaries of state—Madeline Albright and John Kerry—are Jewish, but did not know it until they became famous and genealogists looked into their ancestry. Many American blacks with light skin used to try to “pass” back in the day, but now that black is cool, they no longer do that. . But Latin Americans, as a group, are still big on trying to “pass” as Europeans. So big on it that Wikipedia and others find it necessary to use DNA-tests to ascertain actual ethnicity. The fact that many Latin Americans do that indicates that THEY think race matters. . The black DNA in Latin America is from former slaves. It tends to be more prevalent on the east coast of Africa—closer to Africa—than the West. And the descendants of former slaves in the Western Hemisphere are a hell of a lot better off than the never enslaved ones in Africa. When Muhammad Ali fought in Africa, he toured around there. He commented, ““Thank God my granddaddy got on that boat.” Some would point out that the Africans were colonized. But America and Canada were colonies once, too. . In Dinesh D’Souza’s movie 2016, Obama’s half brother in Kenya notes that the former colonies that are doing the best—other than the U.S.—are those countries that were colonies the longest like Hong Kong and Singapore. Kenya got its independence earlier—too soon in his opinion. Interesting theory, but it must also be noted that the most prosperous former colonies are also mostly populated by northern Europeans and Asians. . If you could evict from Brazil all the Brazilians whose ancestors immigrated to Brazil before 1900, and wipe out their laws, and repopulate it with U.S. citizens only of Latin American descent, it would turn into a booming success story over night. They would bring North American culture, most importantly rule of law, property rights, etc. and would benefit somewhat from being fluent in English. . More probably, the Asians can infiltrate Brazil and other Latin countries and become a large enough group that they could change the culture and laws. This appears to be happening in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, three countries that don’t need a culture makeover. China has so many people that they can become the majority voting bloc in those countries with just about 25 million Chinese immigrants. China, with 1.4 billion people would not even miss 25 million. If you subtract 25 million from 1.4 billion the remainder is 1.4 billion. Moving the decimal, the population of China is now 1,357 million people. Send 25 million to take over those three countries and you are left with 1,332 million people in China. . This is not just a mathematical joke. I have been to those three countries in the last couple of years and it appears to be actually happening. Sort of like an international Free State Project. (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_State_Project.) And the Chinese are not restricting their immigration to those three countries. They are also going to the U.S., Chile, Panama, Brazil, etc. Taking over the governments of BIG countries like the U.S. and Brazil WOULD put a dent in China’s population. Those two countries have a combined population of 517 million people meaning about 230 million or so would have to emigrate to those countries (there are already lots of Asians in both countries). . Would China miss 230 million people? Not really. They started their one-child policy in 1979 and still have it. That eliminated 250 million Chinese. Do 230 million Chinese want to emigrate out of Communist China? Hell, yes! . Actually, you would not need that many. Rouseff won by a vote of something like 51%. So you would only need a couple of million more voters who would reject candidates who appeal to mestizo and mulatto socialist demagogues. Peru already had a Japanese president. Fujimori from 1990 to 2000. Although he is now serving a 25-year jail sentence there for various political crimes. . So when will Brazil, which has “always had a great future,” see the arrival of that great future? I would expect when they get another couple of million immigrants from Asia/North America/Europe. Actually, the existing Brazilians will continue to have babies. So it will be when the combination of recent immigrants and fertility among them reaches critical mass in the electorate. . Latin America will finally see the long-term prosperity its resources predict when it has Anglo rule-of-law culture and a more “diverse” ethnic mix. Should you hold your breath until that happens? Maybe. Go to the international airports in Latin America and watch how many Asians with lots of luggage get off the planes. Indeed, perhaps an investor might wander which Latin American country is closest to Asian critical mass. Peru.
Posted on: Tue, 28 Oct 2014 18:46:34 +0000