On the Kardashev scale, the astrophysicists benchmark against which we are measuring our progress to a type 1 planetary civilisation (RBE), we are currently about a type 0.726. Astrophysicists say it will take 100-200 years to get to type 1. But this scale measures energy output, with each 0.1 interval progressed up the scale representing tenfold increase in energy output. But is this the scale we should be using to measure our progress to type 1 status, considering our real trend is towards achieving more with less and becoming exponentially more energy efficient? Moores law for computer chips means twice the processing power for half the electric consumption is acheived every 18 months. Scrapping most globalisation in favour of distributed localisation means vast reduction in fuel burning logistics. Vertical farming means eradicating the need for pesticides, vastly reducing freshwater consumption, and eliminating tractors and harvesters. And eliminating socially pointless jobs means huge reductions in commuting. If we put all this together, we see that we could be at peak energy output now, and that we will likely decline on the kardashev scale as we get to RBE status (perhaps with the exception of that period of global reconstruction). On the A-Z scale of world information capacity Carl Sagan used, he calculated that in 1973 we were at letter H. From reports Ive Googled, it seems the worlds information capacity is now in the hundreds of exabytes (so in the ten to the twentieth power) of information, which would mean we have already progressed to somewhere around letter S on the info scale . So does this mean that the RBE will be a lot sooner? Is Raymond Kurzweils singularity, in perhaps 30 years the actual target date for a full flowering of an RBE? David Geoffrey Lewis
Posted on: Sat, 01 Nov 2014 16:14:22 +0000