Online, TV, Radio Opinion polls invalid, inconsequential-Media/IT Expert EVERSINCE President Michael Chilufya Sata said died, the nation has been gripped by sorrow and at the same time, elections fever. In the recent past, the nation has been treated to countless opinion polls conducted on television and social media or online media, especially Facebook. The question is, what is the influence of the social media (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram) on the elections outcome or voting pattern in Zambia? How credible are online opinion polls? Do the online, radio and television polls reflect the true voter patterns in all the ten regions of Zambia? The science to determine the influence of the media in electoral decisions is not knew. Communication and media scholars have been dissecting this matter as way back as the 1920s. The general consensus is that the media, as the fourth estate play a role of the watchdog, gatekeeping and most importantly agenda setting. In its role of agenda setting, the media determine what we think and worry about. Lippmann, who first observed this function in the 1920s, pointed out that the public reacts not to actual events, but to the pictures in the head. The effect of agenda-setting is epitomized in the famous Cohen’s quote that the press “may not be successful much of the time in telling people what to think, but it is stunningly successful in telling its readers what to think about”. It is also important to earnestly point out that the media (with specific reference to the collective entity of newspapers, radio, television and social media), its influence of on elections outcome will depend on the media themselves, the societies in which they operate, and the audience they reach. None of these factors are the same everywhere, at all times, or under all conditions. The media in dictatorships, for example, are not likely to exercise the same influence as those in democratic societies. Even among similar types of government, other factors, such as technology, the target audience, religious and ethnic demographics and the message, the candidates may influence the extent of media impact on national polls. Therefore, the influence of the traditional and social media for instance on the USA Presidential or the recent Indian elections cannot be compared with the influence that the media will or may wield on the Zambian elections. The conditions and demographics in the United States of America are totally different from Zambia. According to Statista, as of the third quarter 2014, of the one billion plus Facebook accounts worldwide, the USA accounted for 152 million (or 15%) and India 109 million (10%). Other countries in the top ten of Facebook users include Brazil (71 million); Indonesia (60 million); Mexico (44 million); United Kingdom (30 million); Japan (27 million); France (22.4 million); Germany (22 million) and Italy (18.3 million). Due to the insignificance of the numbers, Zambia’s Facebook users are not listed by Statista. However, simple extrapolation can indicate that there are about 250,000 to 300,000 Facebook accounts in Zambia. Some individuals in Zambia create and own up to three Facebook Accounts and therefore, the genuine Facebook Accounts are around 100,000. And as it is in the case of America, Zambia’s most-connected age group are Facebook users between 18 and 24 years, averaging 500 friends on the social media website. What is significant in our analysis is that, most people in this age-group are not registered voters. Most of them have just qualified to be registered voters upon turning 18 and a significant number were not qualified when a major voter registration drive was done prior to the 2011 elections. Among the major reasons for lower Facebook and other media usage in Zambia is lack of disposable incomes and illiteracy, therefore, leading to low computer penetration. The computer penetration in Zambia is around 2-3% of the country’s 13 million population (2010 National Census). The advent of the smartphones will lead to an increase in social media access and usage but currently, the price of most smartphones are not affordable to most township and rural population. The current Register of Voters as certified by Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) on 30th November, 2014 has a total of 5,166,088 (Five Million Plus) voters. Of this number, 2,590,338 (or slightly over 50%) are women whose incomes are lowest, hence are lowest users of computers, smartphones and therefore, have lowest access to both traditional and new media (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc). The other significant statistic is that majority of these voters are based in rural areas with poorest incomes and poorest access to ICT Devices and Networks. Take for instance, the 1189 registered voters at Kaunga Mashi Station and 1080 voters at Siwelewele in Shangombo District in Western Province or those 1121 voters at Mwape Kalunga and 1087 at Mwanakasabi Polling Stations in Chilubi Districts. Most or if not all of these 4477 registered voters at the four polling stations have no access to television, mobile phones and worse still, access to Internet and social media. The unfortunate circumstances of the voters mentioned from the four polling stations in Shangombo and Chilubi Districts represent the general situations of most of the rural folks and it’s not an exaggeration to say 80% of rural population have no access to any television, 99% have no access to Muvi Television and 99% have no access to Internet and Social Media. How can we therefore, draw satisfaction or make electoral predictions based on Opinion Polls conducted on Muvi Television or Social Media Platforms with its audience confined to Lusaka and along the line of rail? If we remove around 2 million voters based in Lusaka, Copperbelt and other provincial centres, we will still remain with over 3 million voters who have no chance of participating in these opinion polls conducted on Muvi Television and Social Media. Even among the 2 million registered voters in urban areas only 30% might have access to Internet and Social Media and probably 20% with access to Muvi Television. According to estimates from Mobile Providers, there are roughly 3.5 million subscribers with Mobile Internet access. Majority of these are young folks in the age category between 18 and 35 and per earlier assumptions, most of them are not registered voters. The other point that needs to be made is that it is impossible to restrict Internet users from creating multiple e-mail or social media accounts. It is therefore, only true to conclude that most bloggers and Facebook users, have multiple accounts and when an opinion poll is conducted on social media platforms, there are high chances of individuals voting multiple times. Even when it comes to Television Polls conducted through SMS, many Zambia mobile users have multiple simcards and handsets so chances of multiple voting are also extremely high. In conclusion, it is evident that all opinion polls conducted on television, radio and social media platforms lack scientific parameters required for any scientific polling and research. The sampling method is not only skewed but fraudulent as most people who participate in such polls are not even registered voters. For example, most of the regular and vocal bloggers on social media platforms are Zambians in the diaspora, who are not only unregistered voters but are out of touch with the situations and realities on the ground. Even in countries where there is high access to the media and other ICT platforms, scholars have argued that the influence of the media on elections outcome is limited as there are various factors that influence the voting pattern. In Zambia the voters are rarely influenced by the media, and therefore, the outcome of the forth-coming Presidential Elections will be based on other factors. It is easy to conclude that recent opinion polls conducted on Television, Radio and Social Media platforms are invalid and inconsequential. The Author Kunda Chinyanta Mwila is the Founder/Chief Executive Officer (CEO) at Just Click Technologies Ltd and Associate Lecturer at NIPA and has close to 15 years experience in the ISP and Telecommunication Sectors and has worked for ZAMNET and Zamtel. He holds a Bachelor of Mass Communications Degree with a minor in Economics obtained from the University of Zambia and is also a University of Oslo (Norway) postgraduate in New Media and Information Technology. He is Network+ Professional certified by the Computing Technology Industry Association (CompTIA). A graduate in Management Development Programme (MDP) with the McMaster Institute of South Africa, he is currently pursuing a Masters of Science (MSc) in Project Management with Salford University, Manchester, United Kingdom.
Posted on: Sat, 17 Jan 2015 13:13:15 +0000
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015