Our faith in deterrence is strong; we believe in our ability to maintain the status quo by threatening to inflict unacceptable costs on the hostile state were it to attack us or our allies. But it may not necessarily be congruent with reality. This gap between our expectations and reality is particularly relevant for Russia’s ongoing westward push. In fact, Putin’s Russia may have developed certain characteristics that make her less susceptible to being deterred, even by the clearly superior military power of the United States and the Western alliance. It is a weak state, but weak states are often not deterred by stronger ones, and attack even when in the end the odds are against them. Putin may do the unthinkable, after all. A short and cogent article by a RAND analyst, Barry Wolf, is illuminating on this issue. Written more than twenty years ago, the piece lists three characteristics that make weak states engage in aggressive behavior toward strong ones, leading to a failure in deterrence. Aqab Malik Nasir Hafeez
Posted on: Tue, 07 Oct 2014 20:48:12 +0000
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