OutandOutStayer Racing Preview: 24th January 2015 12.40 Cheltenham: OOS Ratings- 1. Peace and Co 183 2. Bivouac 158 3. Karezak 154 Peace and Co should take this, blew us away when winning the Summit Juvenile Hurdle at Doncaster last time by 19 lengths. Went with enthusiasm and then quickened clear on the bridle against some solid looking horses. A really impressive performance. He will need to learn to settle a little better against better class horses but no doubting he is a potentially high class. One for the short list for the top juvenile races this season. Bivouac also has potential for improvement but is surely the yard’s second string. Karezak represents the Alan King yard who have won this race 4 times form 7 runners. He is very solid and consistent and while Peace and Co is all about potential he will run a very solid race. Verdict: Peace and Co is well odds on and we think he should win. At the prices we are happy to sit the race out and take a watching brief. If you wish to oppose the favourite then Karezak would be the one. No Bet. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 12.55 Donny: OOS Ratings- 1. Three Kingdoms 173 2. Solar Impulse 162 3. Mr.Spingsprong 144 Looks a match between AP McCoy and Ruby Walsh this. I am often a bit unfair with the John Ferguson trained horses and tend to expect them to be soft flat types who will win easy races on gaff tracks and then who will crumble mentally when faced with quality battling national hunt breds. There have been many who have fitted this pattern. But one who hasn’t so far is Three Kingdoms. He won a maiden at Leicester in November and then a novice at Newcastle but then when we expected him to struggle upped in class he ran quite well when second to Vibrato Valtat in the Wayward Lad at Kempton last time. He looked to be travelling best of all and while he was probably outbattled by VV – it is still a decent performance. If he produces that form then he will take some stopping. Solar Impulse is an admirable novice chaser. He won at Wetherby in November and then was a creditable second to Josses Hill at Doncaster last time, jumping well. He handles the soft ground and will give Three Kingdoms a battle. Verdict: This is no penalty kick for Three Kingdoms and if it comes to a battle on the run to the line then I’d like to be with Solar Impulse. The champ will be keen to keep TK on the bridle for as long as possible. Ruby will be looking to put pressure on TK and get him off the bridle and put his jumping to the test. Fascinating race but again we’ll take a watching brief. No Bet. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13.15 Cheltenham: OOS Ratings- 1= Stellar Notion and Horatio Hornblower 153 2. Gharrahalish 152 3. Ned Stark 151 Stellar Notion has shown useful form in winning both starts over fences at Leicester and Kempton, jumped really well that day and we like the way he came back when challenged after landing flat footed at the last. He will go on improving. He stays 2-4 ok but this will be much tougher, may not get the run of the race with such an easy lead and needs to come up the hill which will be a new challenge for him. Horatio Hornblower will be fine at the trip, he won a 7-runner maiden at Towcester last time, staying on strongly. He is open to further improvement. Gharrahalish won a novice at Towcester in October and then a novice handicap there in November. Ran well when ¾-length second to Dance Floor King in a novice handicap at Ascot last time, finishing strongly, this trip will suit. Handles soft ground, often leads and is a fine jumper, likely to progress further and will make it tough for Stellar Notion to dominate from the front. Ned Stark won novice handicaps at Huntingdon and Newbury but when upped in class was well beaten behind Ptit Zig at Cheltenham last time, He jumped well that day, stays 3 miles and is a strong traveller. Carole’s Destrier is interesting. He was really impressive when winning a novice at Exeter beating Carraig Mor, jumping really well. However ran like a drain last time at Chepstow, given a very negative ride, held up out the back, steadied in to his fences – a total contrast to how he’d been ridden at Exeter. He was 11/8 favourite that day, really well backed (we were on him too). Who knows what the jockey was up to that day or what went wrong, maybe they thought they would try new tactics – strange though on clearly the best horse in the race – to ride him so negatively was surprising. He is another good jumper, another front runner and if we ignore his last run he’d be in the shake-up. Verdict: A lot of front runners in the race and as you can see from the ratings it is a very tight handicap. We took a small nibble at Carole’s Destrier at 16/1 last night as the price looked too big. Ok we have to forgive that last run but we thought he was over-priced. One Star Win Bet Carole’s Destrier --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13.30 Donny: OOS Ratings 1. De Boitron 156 2. Upepito 152 3. Royal Regatta 151 De Boitron is our top rated ,down 2lbs in the handicap, put up best effort when second to Vasco du Ronceray at Haydock on return, finished a respectable third of 8 to Upsilon Bleu at Wetherby last time without setting the world alight. He normally races near the back, travels strongly but doesn’t always find overly much off the bridle. Needs to be brought through late in the piece. Upepito improved when taking a handicap at Warwick last time beating Keel Haul, suited by the way the race developed. Is up 7lbs for that win and may not have the race run to suit him here. Royal Regatta ran well behind Brother Brian at Kempton on return and then followed up on that promise when winning at Newbury in November, last time out was well backed (we were on) into evens, but ran poorly finishing only 7½ lengths last of 3 finishers to Far West, looking to find very little. I wonder if there are issues with him (bleeding?) and he may be better caught when fresh. Can’t back him after that last performance. So, we are left with doubts about all of our highest rated, wo how about the rest of the field, Kings Grey is another monkey who finds very little but loves this track, Off the Ground will probably not be suited by this drop in trip. Runswick Royal has shown useful form over fences, improved when winning at Newcastle last time beating Yorkist, winning readily. He is open to further improvement over fences. Sea Current showed much improved form when 3½ lengths third to Vibrato Valtat in a novice at Warwick last time and now heads into handicaps. Verdict: I like Sea Current and Runswick Royal here as there are plenty of doubts about the others. Both are just embarking on their handicap chasing careers and can have more to offer. At the odds I prefer Runswick Royal, he enjoys left handed galloping tracks (3-6 50%) and soft ground (44%) and could be worth a small investment. 2 Star Win Bet Runswick Royal ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13.50 Cheltenham – OOS Ratings – 1. Dynaste 185 2. Black Thunder 169 3. Many Clouds 168 It’s difficult to overlook Dynaste on the ratings, he holds a distinct class advantage over the others and is the only G1 winner in the pack. His Cheltenham record is 228121 (121 over fences) and he has proven particularly dominant over fences in fields of 7 or less (11112). The trip is the only unknown factor though we think he’ll stay. There is very little pace in the race anyway so this may not be a true test of stamina. He’ll take all the beating. Black Thunder is improving but looks just below top class and Many Clouds is a likeable sort and his record when racing on very soft ground now reads: 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 which is admirable – he is only 2-9 in top class though. He may find it hard to beat Smad Place this time who is on much better terms. Verdict: Dynaste should win this and we think he’ll stay ok. In all likelihood this won’t be run at a breakneck speed and he can show his class. 3 Star Win Bet Dynaste --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14.05 Donny – OOS Ratings – 1. Analifet 150 2. Princess Leya 147 3. Intense Tango 145 Analifet is top rated, she reportedly suffered a pelvic injury and had almost a year on the sidelines but has shown her wellbeing running fine in her races since her return. Last time out fell 2 out when going well in the IFG/Willis EBF Mares Hurdle won by Carrigmoorna Rock at Leopardstown. She likes to bowl along on front and is unproven beyond 2m. She can be a bit free. Princess Leya is another front runner and another with chances and would probably rate the main danger. Intense Tango was useful on the flat and is interesting, particularly if the two at the top of the betting take each other on, she will be produced late. We have her the best of the local trained mares. She ran well at Catterick, taking it up at the last and forging clear and is worthy of this step up in class. Verdict: Can’t see an angle into the race at the prices. I think Analifet is a worthy favourite provided there are no ill effects from her fall last time. Princess Leya is within 2 lbs though and Intense Tango could have the race run to suit. No Bet ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 14.25 Cheltenham – OOS Ratings – 1. Easter Day 162 2. Little Jon 158 3. Eastern Meteor 151 We have the two top rated miles clear and have this between them. Easter Day despite not being the biggest, has shown smart form over fences, winning Newbury and Ascot beating OFaolains Boy. After 12 months off put up a promising effort when third to Tinker Time at Newbury, shaping as if run just needed. Remains with potential, should stay 3miles and could be off a fair mark and continue to improve over fences. Little Jon has been in many a notebook for a while now. He won a novice at Newton Abbot beating Solar Impulse but failed to complete in novices at Cheltenham last 2 starts, ran out when going well, spooked by camera car on first occasion. Then yet to be popped the question when falling last time. He is a front runner who remains with potential over fences. Verdict: Both potentially well handicapped and both with potential over fences. From a value standpoint Easter Day is at 5/2 while Little Jon is hovering around the 11/2 mark. After much consideration, I am going four stars with EASTER DAY who has only had four runs over fences and could be capable of significant improvement. He is 4 from 4 on soft ground, has form of 12111 over trips of 2m4f – 2m6.5f . I’ll stick in a saver on Little Jon who is the danger. 4 Star Win Bet Easter Day ½ Star Rev Forecast Easter Day/ Little Jon ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2.40 Donny: OOS Ratings 1. Blaklion 162 2. Caracci Apache 155 3. Binge Drinker 148 Looks a match between Blakion and Caracci Apache here. As you know we’ve backed Blaklion twice when he lost (both times jockeys going too slowly in front) and then we were against him when he won. He’s cost us a fair few quid. This is his trip as he can get outpaced over shorter. He is the sort that has to wind up the pace slowly and has no real turn of foot – this may get tactical which may not suit him. Ryan Hatch will be looking to make plenty of use of him. Caracii Apache landed us a nice touch at Plumpton and looked a decent prospect. Hard to know what he beat that day though. Zeroshadesofgrey could run best of the bigger priced runners. Verdict: We are going to leave the race alone as it could be a tactical affair. Blaklion should win but is plenty short enough. No Bet. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3.00 Cheltenham: OOS Ratings 1. Value At Risk 156 2. Robonsfirth 151 3= Vago Collonges and Present View 148 We have taken a strong opinion on Value At Risk he blew us away when winning a 10-runner novice at Newbury on hurdling debut by an easy 22 lengths from Foryourinformation, jumping well/travelling powerfully to draw clear from 2 out, easily. The trainer reported that he had left something to work with that day and he could well improve again. We see him as a very exciting prospect and he can take this before moving onto the Neptune at the festival Verdict: Max bet Value At Risk – we think he is very good and is our ante-post selection for the Neptune at the Festival 5 Star Win Bet Value At Risk 2 Star Win Bet Value At Risk – Neptune Hurdle ante-post ( no run no bet) 16/1 Paddy Power ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3.35 Cheltenham: OOS Ratings 1. Saphir Du Reu 171 2. Reve De Sivola 170 3. Un Temps Pour Tout 169 Saphir Du Reu returns to hurdling after a disappointing try at novice chasing ( fell in two out of his 3 races). We think he’ll get the 3 miles ok but he may a bit rusty back over hurdles and it isn’t every horse who can switch back to hurdles particularly if his confidence has been affected. Reve De Sivola must have every chance after putting up a super bit of form when taking the Long Walk hurdle beating the idling Zarkandar. Un Temps Pour Tout is an unexposed sort and looks up to this sort of race. Cole Harden is game and consistent and always runs his race. Verdict: Not a race to get involved in for us – too many questions. 4.10 Cheltenham: OOS Ratings 1. Dell Arca 151 2.= Kiama Bay and Lightentertainment 145 3. Diamond King 143 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dell Arca is top rated. He won at Compiegne and then at Cheltenham beating Sametegal in 2013/14. not seen to best effect last 2 starts, never involved in Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton last time given an incredible easy time. We can only surmise that something is afoot and a plot is underway. Given the market support we’ll assume its today and join the gamble. He could potentially have a lot in hand. 3 Star Win Bet Dell Arca ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Have a really great days punting.
Posted on: Sat, 24 Jan 2015 11:04:31 +0000
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