PDS friends and fans.. Here is what the SREF (Short Range Ensemble - TopicsExpress

PDS friends and fans.. Here is what the SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast thinks where the best Significant Tornado ingredients will come together. PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT THESE ARE JUST FORECASTED PARAMETERS. THESE PICTURES TELL YOU WHERE THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE TORNADOES WILL BE, AND NOT THE PERCENTAGE CHANCE OF HAVING ONE. Picture 1 is at 4:00 pm and shows a 75% bulls-eye in Central Arkansas where they feel the best atmospheric ingredients will be for tornadoes to form. The St. Louis area looks to be in the 30% to 45% range during this time frame. Picture 2 is at 7:00 pm ans shows the bulls-eye over northern Mississippi with a decreasing threat further north and west with the St. Louis area at 15% by this time. Best timing for storms looks to be between 3pm and 7pm across Missouri and Illinois. I will have a better look at the models and update everyone as soon as warranted. - Gene

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