PORTUGAL AND EAST TIMOR: REVISITING THE TYRANNY OF DISTANCE – ANALYSIS NOVEMBER 11, 2014 IPRIS By IPRIS By Paulo Gorjão On 3 November, East Timor’s government announced the expulsion of seven Portuguese judges, to take effect within a period of 48 hours. In response, the Portuguese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, expressed “concern and unease with the decision taken by East Timor’s government”, considering it “entirely disproportionate”.1 The crisis deepened as the Ministry of Justice suspended cooperation with East Timor due to “the absence of adequate conditions to proceed with judicial cooperation”.2 Meanwhile, the Timorese Prime-Minister acknowledged having mismanaged the affair. Without advanced notice from Dili, which would have allowed Lisbon to take a different approach, Xanana Gusmao argued that “he had been preoccupied with other matters”,3 and that the “shock caused was greater than he had intended”.4 Whether it was intended or not, the truth is that the political damage has been done and the wound will now require time to heal. Having a clearer notion of the impact the decision had in Portugal, Xanana Gusmao has now asked for emotion to be removed from the equation.5 Unfortunately, it will be hard to grant that request since bilateral relations with East Timor receive a high level of attention within Portugal and therefore shape public opinion. Thus, the decision to expel Portuguese judgesand above all, the way it was donewas met with great unease. The Portuguese reaction was therefore inevitable: “there are rules and limits which have to be respected”, the Portuguese Prime-Minister affirmed. When that does not happen, as was the case here, there are “consequences”.6 Nevertheless, there is no point crying over spilt milk. It does not matter much if at the heart of the Timorese decision is “incompetence” by the Portuguese judges, as has been alleged by Xanana Gusmao,7 or the “investigation of corruption by several Timorese ministers”, as stated by the Portuguese press.8 One way or the other, the final result is the same. Although the Timorese Prime Minister may affirm that there was “no intention to cool relations with Portugal”9, that was the consequence. Having said this, the deterioration in relations between the two countries came as no surprise to the informed observer. It has been evident for a long time that relations have been on the decline. In 2011, I wrote an article precisely on this matter.10 In the end, what we have been witnessing is collateral damage resulting from the tyranny of distance, under different guises.11 Twelve years after East Timor’s independence, bilateral relations between Lisbon and Dili remain, to a large extent, grounded in emotional and historical ties which, despite being relevant, are insufficient for the strengthening and solidification of the relationship. Strictly speaking, this gradual detachment is understandable. In a certain way, such a tendency corresponds to the normalization of a relationship that has for long been atypically emotive, the result of historical circumstances that reached an epilogue with the 1999 referendum and East Timor’s independence in 2002. However, this distancing is somewhat irrational, as it reflects the absence of a multidimensional strategy; above all on Dili’s part, as it is the side which has more to lose with a gradual bilateral detachment. Situated between two powerful neighboring states, it would make sense for East Timor to prioritize the diversification of its alliances, in a way to attenuate the impact of Australian and Indonesian hegemony. Thus, to invest in the consolidation of bilateral relations with China, Japan, or Portugal to cite only three would make more political sense. Hence, this week’s developments confirm that East Timor is far from doing everything within its reach to sustain and cherish bilateral relations with Portugal. As the goodwill cycle, which shaped the post-independence period, has become a thing of the past, and now against a backdrop of scarce common political and economic interests, bilateral relations will continue to deteriorate unless something is done. It remains to be seen whether both countries accept this inevitable downgrading in the relationship, or decide to swim against the tide driven by the tyranny of distance. The manner in which the Portuguese judges were expelled does not bode well for the future. * Published also in Portuguese: Paulo Gorjao, “Portugal e Timor-Leste: re- visitando a tirania da dista ncia” (IPRIS Comenta rio, No. 10, Novembro de 2014). Author: Paulo Gorjão Portuguese Institute of International Relations and Security (IPRIS) Source: This article was published by IPRIS as IPRIS Viewpoints 161, November 2014. Notes: 1. “Portugal considera grave a revogacao de vistos de permanencia a funciona rios judiciais internacionais em Timor-Leste” (Governo de Portugal: Ministe rio dos Nego cios Estrangeiros, 3 November 2014). 2. “Na o esta o criadas as condic o es adequadas para prosseguir a poli tica de cooperac a o na area judicia ria com Timor-Leste” (Governo de Portugal: Ministe rio da Justic a, 5 November 2014). 3. “Xanana admite que surpreendeu Passos com expulsa o de jui zes” (Lusa via Dia rio Econo mico, 4 November 2014). 4. “Xanana garante que na o tem “nada contra Portugal”, pede menos emoc a o e manda um abrac o” (Lusa via Expresso online, 5 November 2014). 5. Idem. 6. Raquel Pinto, “Passos. “Somos um pai s irma o de Timor, mas ha limites”” (Expresso online, 5 November 2014). 7. “Xanana garante que na o tem “nada contra Portugal”, pede menos emoc a o e manda um abrac o” (Lusa via Expresso online, 5 November 2014). 8. Filipa Ambro sio de Sousa e Rute Coelho, “Investigac a o a ministros timorens- es forc a sai da de magistrados” (Dia rio de Noti cias, 5 November 2014), p. 2. 9. “Xanana garante que na o tem “nada contra Portugal”, pede menos emoc a o e manda um abrac o” (Lusa via Expresso online, 5 November 2014). 10. Paulo Gorja o, “Portugal e Timor-Leste: a tirania da dista ncia” (i, 8 March 2011). 11. This expression was coined by the Australian historian Geoffrey Blainey, whom, in a book with that title, analysed the way with which the distance between Australia and the English metropolis was decisive in shaping its identity and history. IPRIS The Portuguese Institute of International Relations and Security (IPRIS) is a non-profit and independent NGO, based in Lisbon. IPRIS is an institution dedicated to research on issues of International Relations, with particular interest regarding Portuguese foreign and defense policies.
Posted on: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 07:36:13 +0000
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