PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY AL WILL POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THROUGH 0330Z (9:30pm CST). ADDITIONAL STRONG/SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THRU 05Z (11:00pm CST). DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL TSTM WILL PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KTS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY COUNTY AL. THIS STORM IS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG/...AND THE LATEST KMXX VWP SAMPLED OVER 400 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS STORM WILL POSE A RISK OF SVR WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SRN ELMORE COUNTY AL. GIVEN THE EPISODIC STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION SINCE 0230Z...A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN AL WHERE MUCAPE WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...500 TO LOCALLY 1000 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WAS AROUND 50 KTS. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...A MIX OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z. TRENDS IN TSTM EVOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
Posted on: Sun, 04 Jan 2015 04:02:45 +0000
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