Pair of aces top players in free agent market ... Ranking the free agents based on their average score, and here are the results: • 1. Jon Lester, LHP: The sign of a free-agent class thats long on high-quality starting pitching and not quite as long on impact bats rears its head right away. Everyone knows that huge long-term deals for starting pitchers are an elbow injury or two away from being bad news, but Lesters age (30), good arm health (so far), consistent credentials, playoff experience and left-handedness have put him at the top of this list. • 2. Max Scherzer, RHP: Maybe if Scherzer, 30, were a southpaw, hed be the top pick over Lester based on how hes peaked in the last two seasons. But, again, an impressive placing here for confidence in the value of a contract that could be at least six years and more than $150 million. • 3. Andrew Miller, LHP: Heres our biggest leap. The southpaw reliever jumped from No. 23 in the overall rankings to No. 3 in confidence. The reason? Miller, who has never been a closer and only recently achieved the status of setup-man extraordinaire, will get years (three?) and dollars (less than $10 million annually?) more befitting of an eighth-inning guy. And, at the age of 29, he might blossom into a closer very soon -- and might sign right now for a lot less than what a premium ninth-inning guy would command. • 4. Brandon McCarthy, RHP: McCarthy used his cutter often and with great results after going to the Yankees in a midseason trade this year. He also probably earned himself pretty good money moving forward. McCarthy wont require anywhere near six years and nine digits, which makes him a relative bargain with middle-of-the-rotation upside at the age of 31. • 5. Russell Martin, C: Yes, hes by far the best catcher on the market, and yes, many clubs love his tangibles and intangibles alike, but he doesnt have the offensive resume that Brian McCann brought to the market last year, when McCann got five years and $85 million from the Yankees. Martin might be available in the range of three or four years at $13-14 million per, which would represent great value for a proven team leader and defensive stalwart coming off an .832 OPS, the second-highest of his career. • 6. Yasmany Tomas, OF: Tomas perceived value to the Major Leagues is based on scouts eyes and comparisons to other Cubans who have come over and shined. So its natural to compare this deal to that of the most recent one for which we … sort of … know the result. That, of course, was the huge apparent bargain of unanimous American League Rookie of the Year Jose Abreu to the White Sox for six years and $68 million last fall. Tomas does not arrive with the credentials of Abreu, but hes got a good power-hitting reputation, and at 24, hes three years younger. Thats why something like an assumed five or six years in the $40-50 million range seems worth it - in a thin market for bats. • 7. David Robertson, RHP: Robertson had a tough assignment last year in filling the role of Yankees closer after the greatest of all time, Mariano Rivera, left it open via retirement. Robertson was excellent and set himself up for the big closer contract of the winter. Itll be hard to find a lockdown ninth-inning guy, even if he does get three or four years at somewhere around $10 million per. • 8. Adam LaRoche, 1B: If you can get him for two years and $20 million or so, a 2015 like his 2014 (26 homers, 92 RBIs) would start things off just fine for a team needing a first baseman, even at the age of 35. • 9. Nick Markakis, OF: Theres nothing spectacular here, but good outfield defense, the ability to get on base and the occasional home run at the age of 31 is a nice combo … if its in the two- or three-year, $25-35 million range. • 10. Melky Cabrera, OF: Last seasons line (.301/.351/.458), coupled with the drug suspension now more than a year in the rearview mirror, could add up to a four-year deal around $50 million, and while thats a big investment, hes among the best offensive players available. In other words, good for Melky, and quite possibly good for the team that nabs him. • 11. Jason Hammel, RHP: He looked better for the Cubs than he did for the As last season, but the mid-90s velocity, bat-missing stuff is there. That makes a two- or three-year deal a near certainty. The assumed terms, which are likely somewhere around a minimum of $8 million per year, make him a valuable rotation piece for a contender. • 12. Francisco Liriano, LHP: Liriano falls below the middle of the pack here, because while hes still an attractive left-handed starting option, the projected contract (at least three years and $30 million) isnt cheap, and his ERA and walks went up from 2013 to 14. • 13. Kenta Maeda, RHP: Again, the unknown. Not knowing hell be available as of now, but if he is, there will be a nice-sized posting fee, payable to the Hiroshima Carp. Add that to what some are speculating might be a five-year deal for $100 million. Thats a pretty penny for a guy who doesnt have the raw stuff or Nippon Professional Baseball resume of Masahiro Tanaka, although on the plus side, Maeda is only 26 and had a 2.56 ERA this past season. • 14. Chase Headley, 3B: Hes only 30 years old, so its possible for a healthy Headley to play back to his breakout season of 2012, but giving a guy whose offense has been in decline the past few years a projected contract of three or four years and somewhere in the range of $40-50 million doesnt seem too wise. • 15. Pablo Sandoval, 3B: Hes solid all around, hes really good in October, and hes 28. Those are understandably expensive qualities in a free agent. But what might very well amount to a five-year deal for upward of $75 million for a guy whose full-figured body type doesnt typically age well doesnt seem -- to be the most astute move this winter. • 16. James Shields, RHP: The 6.12 postseason ERA couldnt have helped him in the eyes of our voters, but Shields being so low on this list has more to do with how he projects as a 32-year-old starter (No. 2 or No. 3 for a contender) vs. the ace-type contract hes likely to receive (assumed at least five years, maybe somewhere near $20 million per). • 17. Ervin Santana, RHP: He pitched pretty well last year, putting up a 3.95 ERA and striking out 179 batters in 196 innings. That should get Santana, 31, a three-year deal for somewhere around $40 million. So is he worth that money when hes probably a No. 3 or maybe No. 4 starter for a contender? • 18. Nelson Cruz, OF: No team is getting him for one year and $8 million. That was a one-time, 2014 bargain-basement special, and it worked out well for Baltimore, not to mention Cruz. After leading the big leagues in home runs (40) and driving in 108 runs, both career-high totals, Cruz could be in line to cash in for a projected three- or four-year, $40-60 million deal. But that high price tag, his age (34), the fear of natural regression and Cruzs diminishing defensive skills add up to a low position on the confidence list. • 19. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: Hes 29, plays one of the key positions on the field, and has had good offensive seasons. But confidence isnt high in handing Cabrera an assumed three years and somewhere around $30 million after a .694 OPS in 2014. • 20. Hanley Ramirez, SS: Speaking of shortstops, heres the biggest and most expensive conundrum on the market. Ramirez will be 31 in December, and hes an elite offensive force when healthy -- the most dynamic position player up for grabs. But there are just too many doubts about where he fits on the diamond and if he can stay healthy enough to get 500 at-bats a year (he has only had more than that total once in the last four seasons) to get good value on a deal that could approach five or six years at somewhere around $20 million per. • 21. Francisco Rodriguez, RHP: K-Rod notched 44 saves last year, which could get him a two-year deal. I would rather see his pay lowered or taking the chance that someone else cheaper or already in the bullpen would materialize to assume the closers role. • Jake Peavy, RHP: Hes still only 33, but he threw a lot of innings last year (202 2/3) and compiled an overall 3.73 ERA over stints with the Red Sox and Giants. That means hes qualified to make over $10 million a season. Given that salary demand over what figures to be at least a two-year deal, the younger starting pitchers with less mileage on the arm and body taken instead.
Posted on: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 01:12:04 +0000
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