Per Capita income in Crimea is $2,200. Ukraine without Crimea is closer to $5,000. The whole conflict focuses upon Ukraines desire to join the EU and the former PM stating that such an outcome would never be allowed. Given GDP, growth, and structural debt factors; EU would not have let Ukraine join in any event. Ukraine, and Crimea, for that matter are not real countries with normal economies. They are reliant countries. Both are 100% dependent on Russia for virtually all of their electricity, natural gas, and petroleum. If Russia cuts them off, Europe is entirely on the hook for these vital products. AND Europe itself is dependent on Russia for 30% of their fossil fuel needs, more like 60% of their natural gas. All lending has frozen int he region, there is a lingering drought, and now farmers will lack cash to get their crops planted this spring. Russia has already lost 20% the value of its Ruble, I can imagine a Ukraine that loses more than 1/3 of its in-country capital by this fall. Of course politicians will be blamed and EVERYONE takes to the streets again to wave flags and sing songs. Strategically, I cant imagine who is driving this bus? Next winter will be very interesting. I foresee Feed My Starving Children making food packets for Ukraine next September.
Posted on: Mon, 17 Mar 2014 21:01:27 +0000
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