Personal & alarming note from reading the Second Machine Age book: Thailand is not at all prepared for the coming jobs and social disruption due to perpetual and sustained tech induced creative destruction and structural inequality. without a quick turn to tech-focused skills education, things will become much more difficult for the most of the population. Recent studies on the impact of digital tech to economy is becoming more and more conclusive, digital tech will drive more inequality , especially in making repetitive & low cognition jobs obsolete for human. Normally such innovation will generate new jobs once it disrupt the old and the new tech order is becoming more establish. But recent evidences show that the new jobs generated are relatively little compare to what tech replaced human jobs, this is true even in China. What is alarming is that although many economists would say the reason for relatively low jobs creation after tech disruption was simply because it is still early in tech cycle process, eventually new jobs should catch up. The scary part however, is that the digital tech revolution across all industries are happening at an increasingly accelerated rate , especially due to Moores law and Kurzweils singularity situation. Machine intelligence has progressed faster in the fast 5 years than the past half a century while the cost falls exponentially; leading directly to machine performing more and more industrial production jobs, information processing and coordination jobs, and probably even driving cars very soon (google car is working well). This would mean the phase of creative disruption might become perpetually rapid & sustained, this would mean the jobs displaced will far exceed new tech induced jobs creations. We are kind of seeing the early part of this situation where U.S. economic recovery brought back growth without corresponding increase in jobs. What is worst is that the new jobs will skewed to those with right education background & tech environment, while leaving those less fortunate further and further away. This could mean tech induced structural income inequality and even unemployment. New Jobs will be concentrated on tech manipulation and creation skills as well as creative content development. Country like Thailand , where most population is relatively uneducated in digital tech creation skills, will be in deep trouble as it will drive the countrys already terrible inequality rate further into the abyss, which in turn, will further increase inequality-induced political crisis. Rapid change in tech education and skills development is ever more critical. books.google.co.th/books/about/The_Second_Machine_Age_Work_Progress_and.html?id=WiKwAgAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y
Posted on: Sat, 12 Jul 2014 04:52:58 +0000
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