Pitchers and catchers will report to spring training in a month, but two of this offseason’s most coveted free-agent pitchers still don’t know where they’ll go. Two-time All-Star Max Scherzer lingers on the market, and very few substantive rumors have emerged linking him to pursuing teams. Scherzer reportedly turned down a six-year, $144 million extension from the Tigers last year and is presumably seeking a deal at least as large as the six-year, $155 million haul that Jon Lester got from the Cubs earlier this offseason. James Shields, a consistently good pitcher and one of the game’s most durable arms, is expected to sign a nine-figure deal somewhere. But it’s not at all clear which team will be signing those paychecks. So what gives? Completed nine-figure deals for starting pitchers, by average annual WAR. (CHART: Rubie Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports) Completed nine-figure deals for starting pitchers, by average annual WAR. (CHART: Rubie Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports) There’s no doubt that top-flight starting pitching remains valuable in baseball even as run scoring decreases around the league. But massive contracts for starting pitchers have so rarely worked out well for the acquiring teams that general managers are likely — and understandably — gun-shy about allocating such a huge portion of their payroll to a pitcher in his 30s. Per Baseball Prospectus, there have been 16 contracts for starting pitchers worth $100 million or more. Half of them are less than three seasons old and difficult to judge. Of the others, only one has paid somewhat consistent dividends to the team over its length. Here’s a look at the history of nine-figure contracts for starting pitchers, broken down into four categories: Too soon to tell Homer Bailey, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, Masahiro Tanaka and Justin Verlander have all signed deals worth more than $100 million in the last couple of years. Some look better than others, but all seem too new to assess in any reasonable way. Justin Verlander (USA TODAY Sports Images) Justin Verlander (USA TODAY Sports Images) All of them correspond with boon times for the baseball economy, as payrolls and contracts skyrocket thanks to massive influxes of TV money in markets large and small. So it’s important to note — obviously — that a $105-million deal for Homer Bailey in 2014 is a heck of a lot different than the $105-million deal Kevin Brown signed with the Dodgers before the 1999 season. Guys just get paid more now, so Bailey’s salary represents a smaller portion of his team’s payroll and less risk than it would have a decade ago. But it’s hardly nothing, of course. Every GM in baseball would prefer to have $15 million or so in free payroll than an ineffective or injured pitcher in the back-end years of a massive contract. The deals for Bailey and Verlander are off to shaky starts. The deals for Hernandez and Kershaw — needless to say — look significantly better right now, and those guys are good enough in the early part of their contracts that they might provide enough surplus value to make up for later years when they will certainly be less effective. That seems like the wisest approach to all free-agent deals, really: Pay a guy for what he’ll provide you in the immediate future and hold out hope that he proves something less than a full-blown disaster in the late years of his contract. Retooling teams with an eye on 2017 contention should want no part of pitchers like Scherzer and Shields. The good one (PHOTO: Anthony Gruppuso/USA TODAY Sports) (PHOTO: Anthony Gruppuso/USA TODAY Sports) Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies: Lee left bigger offers on the table to sign a five-year, $120 million pact with the Phillies before the 2011 season. Lee suffered an elbow injury that limited him to 13 starts in 2014, but he was so good from 2011-2013 that his contract will look pretty good (by the standards of pitcher contracts) even if he doesn’t throw a pitch in Philadelphia in the final year of the deal this season. Since inking with the Phillies, Lee has thrown 747 2/3 innings, yielded a 2.89 ERA and amassed 21.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Though the Phillies have reached the postseason only once in Lee’s second go-round with the club, no big pitcher contract anywhere close to completion matches Lee’s in terms of its average annual return. Lee does have a $27.5 million option for 2016 that will vest if he throws more than 200 innings this season. But he’s been so consistently good that if he’s on track to throw more than 200 innings this season, he’ll likely prove a valuable trade chip for the rebuilding Phillies even with the pending option year attached. The OK Kevin Brown (PHOTO: Mark J. Terrill/AP Photo) Kevin Brown (PHOTO: Mark J. Terrill/AP Photo) Kevin Brown, Los Angeles Dodgers: The then-record seven-year, $105 million contract Brown signed before the 1999 season is often cited as one of the worst in baseball history, but that might have more to do with the pitcher’s general surliness and unpopularity than his actual performance in its duration. It was hardly a good deal, especially considering its size relative to the rest of the league at the time. But Brown made two All-Star teams during the contract, amassed 22.9 WAR, and brought the Dodgers back the useful but unspectacular Jeff Weaver when he was dealt to the Yankees in late 2003. Which is to say that the widely reviled Kevin Brown contract actually holds up pretty well compared to some of the other nine-figure deals signed by starting pitchers. Johan Santana, New York Mets: When the Mets traded a group of young players to the Twins for Santana in early 2008, they earned an exclusive negotiating window to sign the lefty ace to a contract extension. They settled on a six-year, $137.5-million deal, and Santana got his Mets career off to an excellent start with a Cy Young-caliber year in 2008 and a couple of good — albeit somewhat short — ones in 2009 and 2010. Then Santana endured major shoulder surgery and made only 21 starts in the remaining three years of the contract. One of them happened to be the Mets’ first and only no-hitter in franchise history. But despite that highlight, Santana’s huge contract became something of an albatross when the Mets started slashing payroll in the wake of ownership’s losses in the Bernard Madoff scandal. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees, pt. 1: The large left-hander actually signed two of the 16 total nine-figure deals here, but cut the first of them short with an opt-out clause he invoked three seasons into the seven-year, $161 million contract he signed following the 2008 season. This was a tricky one to categorize, and probably should not qualify as a $100-plus million contract since it only paid him about $65 million. He was real good for all three years of the deal and spectacular in the postseason during the Yankees’ 2009 championship run, but the opt-out ultimately forced the Yankees to tack on at least another year and $30 million to the one that was in place. And it now looks like they should have just walked away. Not looking great Matt Cain (USA TODAY Sports Images) Matt Cain (USA TODAY Sports Images) Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants: This one’s sort of a tweener, and it feels unfair to call Cain’s six-year, $127.5 million deal a bad one for a club that has won two World Series since signing it. Plus, Cain’s a popular, homegrown star and still young enough at 30 that he could very well make the contract look better by the end of next year. But since signing the extension, the righty has had one good year, one lousy one, and one cut short by an ankle injury. He has provided the Giants 4.5 WAR, or an average of 1.5 a year. The trend isn’t great, but an ankle injury isn’t damning for the long haul like shoulder surgery would be. And Cain made at least 30 starts in every full season of his career before 2014. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees, pt. 2: If we’re counting Sabathia’s current deal as separate from the one he signed before the 2009 season — and we are, here — then it’s a five-year, $122 million pact with a vesting option for a sixth season. Since the extension, Sabathia has had one good year, one bad one, and one ruined by a knee injury that required season-ending surgery. He has been worth an average of 1.1 WAR per year to the Yanks since 2011. Now Sabathia is 34, has endured a drastic decline in his fastball velocity, and is under contract for at least the next two seasons plus a 2017 option that will vest as long as he doesn’t injury his left shoulder in 2016. There’s still time for him to turn it around, but it’s hard to figure how he’ll be good enough moving forward to make the contract seem like a shrewd one on the Yankees’ side. The bad* (PHOTO: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) (PHOTO: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants: Zito hit free agency at age 28 and coming off an All-Star season in Oakland. The Giants rewarded him with an astonishing seven-year, $126 million contract that he could never live up to. He mustered an even 3.0 WAR in his tenure in San Francisco, or just above 0.4 a season. Only a few things keep Zito’s deal out of the next category: For one, he mostly stayed healthy — for better or worse — and made 197 starts over his seven years with the club. For another, he pitched pretty well in the postseason in 2012 en route to the Giants’ World Series win, and flags fly forever. And I included an asterisk because Zito and his wife, Amber, became the subjects of one of the coolest sports photos of all time as the Giants celebrated their 2012 NLCS win in the rain. Maybe that picture alone isn’t worth $126 million, but it seems shockingly close. EASTER EGG: Young Madison Bumgarner in the background. The truly abysmal (PHOTO: Erik S. Lesser/AP Photo) (PHOTO: Erik S. Lesser/AP Photo) Mike Hampton, Colorado Rockies: After helping the Mets to a World Series berth in 2000, Mike Hampton signed a then-record eight-year, $121 million free-agent contract with the Rockies. Hampton cited area schools among the reasons he took the massive paycheck to pitch at altitude, but rumors swirled that he wanted to hit home runs and apparently didn’t consider why going to a place where he would be able to do that might be a bad idea for a starting pitcher. Hampton made 62 starts for the Rockies in 2001 and 2002 and yielded a 5.75 ERA. The Rockies pawned him off on the Braves (via the Florida Marlins) and his fortunes improved, but not nearly enough to justify his paycheck. And injuries cost him the entire 2006 and 2007 seasons. Hampton amassed 2.9 WAR over the eight years of the contract, or an average of just under 0.4 WAR a season. You can find a 0.4 WAR pitcher for the league minimum, almost always.
Posted on: Sat, 17 Jan 2015 16:28:30 +0000
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