Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. UPDATED 2013 Aug 24 1230 UTC .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Regions 1820 (S12W76, Hsx/alpha) and 1830 (S05W72, Eso/beta) each produced C1 events during the period. A disappearing filament was reported near S13W23 between 24/0028 and 0212 UTC but appears to have been reabsorbed. An eruptive prominence off the west limb was visible in SDO/AIA 304 imagery at approximately 24/0830 UTC and an associated CME became visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 24/1012 UTC. Further analysis will be necessary as imagery comes in but it appears to be directed well south and west of the ecliptic plane. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) activity for the remainder of day one (24 Aug). Activity is likely to be low on days two and three (25-26 Aug). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to high levels, reaching a maximum value of 1,860 pfu at 23/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to high levels for the next three days (24-26 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three days (24-26 Aug). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters, measured at ACE were indicative of a weak shock passage around 23/2355 UTC, presumably from the 20 Aug event. Solar winds increased from approximately 475 km/s to 510 km/s, along with a slight increase in temperature and density. Total field increased from 5 nT to 8 nT and continued to rise settling around 10 nT. IMF Bz remained predominately northward between +1 and +3 nT but reached -3 nT towards the end of the period. .Forecast... Solar wind speed is expected to continue to increase on day one (24 Aug) and remain enhanced for days two and three (25-26 Aug) with arrival of the 21 Aug CME and onset of a CH HSS late on day three. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels as coronal hole high speed stream effects waned and northward IMF Bz impeding a good connection with the 20 Aug CME. .Forecast... With arrival of the 21 Aug CME, the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels late on day one (24 Aug). G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected to continue early on day two (25 Aug) with conditions decreasing to quiet to active levels for the remainder of the day. Predominately quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (26 Aug) with waning CME effects and the onset of a CH HSS.
Posted on: Sat, 24 Aug 2013 21:28:32 +0000
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