Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. UPDATED 2013 Oct 1 1230 UTC .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was very low. Region 1855 (S13E16, Bxo/beta) showed gradual spot growth during the period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be very low during the forecast period(October 1-3) with a chance for an isolated C-class flare. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... A greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit is in progress. The event reached the S1(Minor) threshold at 30/0505 UTC and the S2 (Moderate) threshold at 30/1420 UTC. Thus far, the peak flux at greater than 10 MeV for this event was 182 pfu at 30/2005 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux level at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) levels October 1-2, then decrease to S1 levels on October 3 as the proton event gradually decays. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels during the October 1-3 forecast period. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters as measured by the NASA ACE spacecraft indicated nominal solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed gradually increased to about 300 km/s. The Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total field (Bt) reached about 10 nT and the IMF north-south component (Bz) was mostly northward in the 5 nT range. IMF Phi data indicated a predominately negative-polarity (Toward) solar sector. .Forecast... The CME associated with the filament eruption that occurred late on October 29 is expected to arrive around midday on October 2. Increases in speed, density, and IMF Bt, along with increased IMF Bz variability are expected with the CME arrival. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on October 1 due to possible coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) during October 2-3 due to a CME passage associated with the October 29 filament eruption.
Posted on: Tue, 01 Oct 2013 17:21:52 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015