Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2014 Jan 21 2200 UTC Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 20/2249Z from Region 1963 (S06E71). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 488 km/s at 21/2051Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 21/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/1708Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (22 Jan, 24 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jan). III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/15/05 Minor Storm 01/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/25/15 Major-severe storm 05/25/05
Posted on: Tue, 21 Jan 2014 22:11:17 +0000
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