President Museveni’s political strategists will need to dig deeper into the urban youth constituency for him to win the 2016 elections, a new online poll by ChimpReports has revealed. The results of a two-week electronic survey carried out by the website shows that, “if presidential elections were held today” Museveni would win with 34.4 percent with presidential hopeful and former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi following at 33.0 percent. FDC boss Rtd Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu would score 25.2 percent and Norbert Mao 7.0 percent. 2,150 respondents of ChimpReports online users across the country participated in the poll that stretched from late November to early December 2014. 748 respondents said they would stand right behind Museveni while 710 said they would vote for Mbabazi and 542 for Muntu. Mao trailed with 151 supporters. Samuel Makokha W’Mugeni, the FDC Envoy to Scandinavian countries, described the poll as “a fair representation” of people’s views, adding, “Amama and Museveni are competing.” Makokokha further spoke on Muntu’s poor performance, arguing, “given how he has handled FDC, he needs to work on structures and be more visible to the voters.” He added: “Muntu needs to do more than double to match Amama and Museveni. So far, people don’t have confidence in him.” The FDC leader has since rubbished reports that he is inactive; saying his style of mobilisation is unique and covert. He recently told press he is not a populist. What comes out clearly in the poll is the narrowing gap in the race for presidency between Museveni and Mbabazi. The NRM Secretary General maintains he will not contest against his party chairman in 2016 but the president’s political aides, strategists and intelligence officials are certain about Mbabazi’s presidential ambitions in the forthcoming polls The results further indicate that should Mbabazi decide to stand against Museveni, he might divide the NRM vote, denying the incumbent a 51 percent win which is a constitutional requirement for one to be declared an elected head of state in Uganda. Ironically, even after the vote is divided between Museveni and Mbabazi, the opposition might fail to capitalize on such an opportunity to take power due to structural weaknesses and internal divisions. This could lead to a re-run where the opposition might rally behind Mbabazi to give Museveni a run for his money. It is also possible that opposition supporters, who would not want to associate with Mbabazi due to alleged links to a litany of corruption scandals, could throw their weight behind Museveni. Incumbency Rwamuguma Mwene Rwabituuza, a political commentator on Uganda and regional politics, says basing on the polls, the incumbency factor still plays a lot. “A lot of Ugandans subscribe to the NRM and the elite(since most voters are online) still love NRM and only hope that the Mbabazi threat is real as it ushers in new democracy of contesting up to the big man in NRM,” said Rwabituuza. “I even sense more polls closing in to reduce the percent between Mbabazi and Museveni. These are the most viewed as potential candidates,” he added. “For Muntu I think he’s admired by the “sane” Ugandans who admire his work ethics but I doubt he has the national appeal. Much as he is a retired general he’s not symbolistic of militarism which is key in Uganda,” he further argued. “Norbert Mao, I think with all the confusion in DP, Mao has failed to show leadership, so he’s now less trusted to lead anything though it is imperative to note his unifying role in Amuru by-election.” According to Google Analytics, an independent service offered by Google that generates detailed statistics about a website’s traffic and traffic sources and measures conversions, ChimpReports has about 850,000 visitors per month who are interested in politics, sports, entertainment, business news and regional affairs. Of this number, about 40 percent are hugely interested in politics. The poll’s respondents form part of this group which is expected to vote in the upcoming elections. Uganda has a low voter turn up for elections, with majority being the elderly. Edgar Muvunyi Tabaro, a respectable Constitutional lawyer, says the poll results “shows middle class needs to be attended to. It’s sentiments and perception!” The head of information and research in the president’s office, Morrison Rwakakamba, told ChimpReports on Monday night, “The NRM online community is focused on discussion related to upcoming NRM National conference Monday Dec.15th 2014,” adding, “Even then, the few that sauntered and found the opinion poll kept President Museveni on top.” Tabu Butagira, an award-winning Ugandan journalist on the Fulbright Scholarship at the Arizona State University in United States, says the poll “suggests tight competition and no first-round outright winner.” He observed that that an online survey has more urban or Diaspora respondents and that “can mask or distort actual truth in multiple ways.” He added: “First, previous polls and election results confirm opposition posting stronger results in towns while Museveni has a solid command in rural areas where majority voters live. The Diaspora has Ugandans, many of whom left the country due to disagreement with Museveni government or other such disaffect.” Butagira, who was the first Ugandan to win the David Astor Journalism Award in 2008, maintains, “Museveni, the way I know him, doesn’t require Mbabazi or anybody’s goodwill to win a ballot. He can rule even without elections, the way he did before.” Rwakakamba intervenes, saying, “We are also aware that those who picked Hon. Mbabazi are opposition adherents hell bent on cultivating a picture that NRM is divided. Of course the sheer geography of this poll tells us very little about President Museveni’s massive grassroots support. For example, my mother, a strong Museveni supporter missed out on this opinion poll.” Chimpreports Managing Editor, Giles Muhame said the poll was accessed by people who have access to internet in urban and local areas. Peter Magelah Gwayaka, a lawyer and researcher, observed: “Personally I do not see any significance in the gap (between Museveni and Mbabazi), but one thing you may note is urban youths are not so decided between the two. Also you realize the two account for more than 60 percent of the choices.” He added: “I guess for now and this being an urban youth poll can reflect that. However Facebook results may not reflect what the people in the villages think. Their views may be very different from urban youth yet those are the main voters.” Asked to comment on Muntu’s sorry performance, Magelah added: “He is also not doing badly, especially given the fact that he has not been in the news of late. It is possible if you remove Amama or Museveni he will be the biggest contender between whoever remains. He is biggest against Museveni if Amama chooses not to stand.”
Posted on: Tue, 09 Dec 2014 15:43:27 +0000