Price-Boomtown Markets are Still Far From Fully Recovered Jed - TopicsExpress

Price-Boomtown Markets are Still Far From Fully Recovered Jed Kolko, Chief Economist September 6th, 2013 inShare.The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of how asking prices and rents are trending nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and therefore show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Because asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed. Asking Prices Rise in August, but Price Slowdown Continues Asking home prices increased 1.2% month-over-month in August after being essentially flat in July (this month, July’s figure was revised upward from an originally-reported decline of 0.3%). However, monthly changes are volatile. This is why we also look at quarter-over-quarter changes – which are less jumpy – to see the trend in asking-home prices. Quarter-over-quarter, prices rose by 3.1% in August, down from 3.2% in July and a peak of 4.0% in April. That said, a 3.1% quarterly increase is still sizeable: if that rate continued for a full year, it would mean a 13% jump in prices. But we expect prices to slow further, for three reasons: rising mortgage rates (rates have risen more than a full point since early May), expanding inventory (as reported by NAR, inventory has increased for six months straight on a seasonally adjusted basis), and declining investor demand. August 2013 Trulia Price Monitor Summary % change in asking prices # of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases % change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures Month-over-month, seasonally adjusted 1.2% Not reported 0.8% Quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted 3.1% 96 3.6% Year-over-year 11.0% 98 11.3% * Month-over-month change is August versus July. Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes are three-month averages. Data from previous months are revised each month, so data being reported now for previous months might differ from previously reported data.

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