Probability of APC presidency in 2015 The struggle for the 2015 presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress, APC, becomes tough by the day, even as the candidates continue to fine-tune strategies to grab the ticket. In about two months from now, the All Progressives Congress, APC would be picking one amongst its numerous aspirants to fly its flag in the February 14, 2015 presidential election. Among the notable aspirants in the party who have shown interest for the office are former military Head of State, Muhammadu Buhari, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Kano State governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, Imo State governor, Rochas Okorocha, newspaper publisher, Mr. Sam Nda-Isaiah and Speaker, Federal House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal. However, none of these aspirants have so far declared publicly his ambition to aspire for the nation’s top job, though everything points to the fact that their declarations are just days away. While Atiku has already picked third week of this month of September for his declaration, Buhari’s campaign office in Wuse, Abuja has continued to be a beehive of activity with many groups coming to pay courtesy visits. Similarly, while Okorocha has taken to the television advertorials in recent days, Kwankwaso on his part simply said that he is still consulting. Tambuwal appears to still be in limbo over his aspiration but has continued to criss-cross all the geo-political zones in search of political backings. How APC candidate will emerge APC National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, said that the party will not shut out anybody from the contest, but what is paramount is getting a good and popular candidate, who could lead the party to victory and ensure that aspiration of Nigerians for good governance was met. He also indicated that the party’s choice of candidate will be based on reality and what would work for the party in its quest to defeat the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in 2015. Odigie-Oyegun said regarding how the presidential candidate emerges, “if anybody feels strongly about it and the party feels that that is the candidate that will help us win the election, whether in the case of presidency or vice presidency, we will quickly rearrange every other thing to fall in line. Our target is to win the election in February next year, and salvage this country.” He said, for example, it will be unwise for anybody from the South-South to say he is vying for APC presidential ticket, adding:. “I say this because I am from the South- South.” 2015 and the odds in favour of APC It looks like a tall order but nothing is impossible in politics and that includes the probable power shift from the ruling PDP to the resurgent opposition APC. Every permutation has favoured PDP to still retain the Presidency in 2015, but APC is resilient and bent at stopping at nothing in its quest to grab the mantle. And a lot count for them. Successful merger When three political parties: the defunct All Nigerian Peoples Party, ANPP, Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, and Congress for Progressives Change, CPC as well as a faction of All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA agree to merge into one progressive camp, pessimists went to town analysing how difficult and impracticable it would be. But against all odds, APC came to be. With 10 states in its kitty at formation, the party’s rank soon swelled with the defection of five PDP governors. This feat did not only humble the PDP but also forced it to change its leadership. Successful convention Managing success is one difficult course in every human endeavour but it is even worse in the political terrain. Pessimists have also argued that the marriage of strange bed fellows in APC will certainly result to much expected crack in the party. APC leaders, though aware of these concerns, are however determined to disappoint their traducers but went ahead to hold congresses that culminated in its national convention with a high degree of success. As expected, disgruntled few left, but that convention which enthroned Odigie-Oyegun as its first National Chairman brought the needed stability to the party. Post-convention crisis Governorship elections in two APC states of Ekiti and Osun were held; while it lost the former, it retained the later. The party also faced impeachment plots: again while it lost Adamawa, it resisted the plot in Nasarawa. It also grappled with PDP-propelled propaganda that associated the party with Janjaweed Islamic fundamentalism. The party is doing everything to clear itself from that negative image. Tangible deliverables Many citizens seem fed up with the fact that government has yet to deliver on its many promises on critical sectors like education, security and power. In the last four years, the government has paid lips services to these major sectors which consumes over 60 percent of all its capital votes, with nothing tangible to show for the huge expenditure. Under this government, corruption appears to have taken a dangerous bent with many expositions treated with kids-gloves and culprits allowed to swim freely in their plunders. Though, APC has on several occasions appear to attack individuals particularly, President Jonathan and some PDP officials, but a lot is expected of it in addressing issues through constructive criticism and giving alternative solutions where the government has failed. Its promise to form a shadow government has not materialised as that would have given the electorate the assurance that if given power, it can do better. One thing is sure; the electorate are watching helplessly but may seize the February election to decide their fate. Power equation The Northern agitation for power to return to the region unconditionally appears to favour the APC most. This is because the PDP is most certain to return President Jonathan, a Southerner as its flag-bearer. With the numerical strength of APC members in the North and South-West, with fragments in the South-South and South- East, it is certain that APC would have itself to blame if it fails to capitalise on this numerical strength to win the election. Though PDP commands more states, but depending on the candidate APC will present, PDP states in the North such as Niger, Katsina, Bauchi, Gombe and Kaduna could go either way. Character of the APC candidate In spite of all positives mentioned earlier, Nigerian electorate will be much more interested in the character of who the party brings forward as its candidate. This will be the real game changer. Nigerians will not take away power from ‘the known to the unknown’. Yes Jonathan, even in his incapacitation, is known for his humility and love for the nation, but Nigerians will only vote him out if APC presents a better alternative as its flag-bearer. The gladiators: Mohammadu Buhari The Daura, Katsina State-born retired general from the North-West geo-political zone of the country is not new to the presidential race. He has had three unsuccessful shots at the office since the current democratic dispensation commenced in 1999. In 2003, Buhari vied for the Presidency under the defunct ANPP platform and lost to then President Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP. He was again in 2007 defeated by his own kinsman, the late Musa Yar’Adua. In 2011, the General again ran for the Presidency, under the platform of the defunct CPC, a party he co-founded but again lost to the incumbent, President Jonathan. Notwithstanding suffering defeats in the past three presidential polls, Buhari still holds his head high and continues to maintain very high and impressive grassroots followership. He is generally perceived as one with high moral integrity, earned particularly through his anti corruption stance. In the race for the 2015 APC presidential ticket, Buhari is generally seen as a strong and foremost contender. In fact, his followers believe strongly that going by the modified direct primaries recently approved by APC for its presidential primary, the retired General stands in good stead for the ticket. The modified direct primaries will involve about 300,000 party members chosen from the wards, local governments, state and national levels, voting to elect the presidential candidate. The system is welcomed for its ability to reduce the influence of money bags. One of the major criticisms Buhari has had to contain with in his quest is the perception by some Nigerians, particularly Christians from the South that he is a Muslim fanatic. Ironically, it is the same religious factor that has endeared him to his large followership in the North. Another factor that may work against Buhari is age. At 72, many believe that Buhari does not possess the needed energy and drive to govern a complex and large country like Nigeria, leading to insinuations that a Buhari Presidency will be run, not by Buhari himself, but by proxies. Atiku Abubarkar Former Vice President Abubakar, who moved from PDP to APC few months back, has vowed to get the ticket and run for the election. To achieve this, he has set up his campaign structure to commence work immediately, while he has also embarked on a nationwide tour to meet and consult with stakeholders across the country. Abubakar, who was vice to former President Obasanjo between 1999 and 2007 has built an impressive political structure across the country. And when he finally declares his intention, it would be the fourth time he has shown interest in the nation’s highest office. After his failed attempt in 1993, he, in 2007 emerged the presidential candidate of the defunct Action Congress, AC, but lost to the late president, Yar’Adua, the PDP candidate. In 2011, Abubakar contested the PDP presidential primaries, but lost to the incumbent president, Jonathan and later joined APC shortly after its formation and after realising that achieving his ambition in the PDP may be herculean. In a statement he personally signed at the time, he said he was leaving the PDP because of the “culture of impunity and arbitrariness,” perpetrated by its leaders. The former vice president have an array of formidable galaxy of aspirants he would have to contend with on the way to picking the APC ticket, but known for his political sagacity and patronage, he may as well reap bountifully from present leaders who have benefited from his generosity. Musa Kwankwaso Governor Kwankwaso is one politician who has had it nearly very rosy since the advent of democracy in 1999. He was Kano governor between 1999 and 2003, but lost his re-election bid in the 2003 only to be returned to the same office in 2011. Appointed Minister of Defence in 2003 by former President Obasanjo, he was also appointed Presidential Special Envoy to Somalia and Darfur by Obasanjo after losing the bid to pick PDP ticket to contest the 2007 election. Kwankwaso made most of his wealth and influence in the PDP, the party he now demonises and having wined and dined with the very people he now refers to as devils for over a decade; it will certainly be a huge surprise to see him become the APC presidential flag bearer. He continued to bask in the euphoria in which he makes headlines whenever he bashes President Jonathan and how his party won all the 44 local councils in the local council poll conducted earlier this year and this has given him the feeling that he can easily clinch the party’s presidential ticket. Despite saying that he is yet to make up his mind to run for the highest political office in the country, Kwankwaso’s posters continue to dot much of the Northern landscape and a few places in the South. He has popularised the local red cap in his Kano, giving birth to what is now known as the ‘Kwankwasiyya Movement’ and no doubt, the red cap and his trademark white traditional attires match very well, but whether the APC presidential cap fits him is something that only time will tell. However, if he eventually decides to throw his hat in the ring, he would most certainly have formidable opponents and many other factors to contend with. Aminu Tambuwal The House of Representatives would be rounding off its fifty-nine day recess next Tuesday and Tambuwal may still not declare his interest to run for the Presidency in 2015. Despite pointers to his settled defection to APC and his race for the Presidency, Tambuwal denied in Oyo recently that he has interest in the top job. However, the Speaker who had rounded off the third session of the 7th House of Representatives on a trade-mark fiery six weeks ago, has been going around the country, consulting and making suggestive comments. This is just as presidential ambition posters dot some parts of the country. National Mirror Roundtable investigations reveal that the Speaker has already established his presidential campaign office somewhere in the Maitama district of Abuja. Pointers to Tambuwal’s ambition emerged earlier in the year when former military President, Ibrahim Babangida, urged him to run for a higher office, which by protocol and implication, means prodding him to run for the Presidency. Tambuwal has gone ahead to be very critical of the PDP and its leadership since then, even making searing criticisms and taking pot shots at the PDP government on matters concerning the wellbeing of Nigerians; a position very unusual for a highranking member of the ruling party. On June 5, the Speaker reaffirmed the Green Chamber’s resolve to stand on the side of the long-suffering people of Nigeria. It was at the occasion to mark the third year of conscientious legislation in that arm of the National Assembly. Highlights of the Speaker’s speech, which was both affirmation of the House independence and rebuke of the Presidency, were corruption, poor governance, lack of accountability and abuse of the judicial process by top public office holders. Tambuwal’s emergence as a gadfly and a possible opponent to Jonathan in 2015 have been provoked by two reasons: how he emerged Speaker in defiance of the vicious hurdles stacked against him, and his personal conviction that Nigerians deserve better leadership. Tambuwal’s presidential ambition is predicated on the large followership he enjoys within the rank of the lawmakers, who see in him a detribalised young Nigerian, whose passion for the nation is unsurpassed. His acceptance cuts across all the regions and is largely seen a as bridgebuilder with zero-tolerance for corruption. Rochas Okorocha The Imo State governor has been eyeing the top job since the inception of this democracy in 1999, an ambition that has seen him traversed many political parties, including: PDP, defunct All Peoples Party, APP, Action Alliance, AA, APGA and now APC. He is South-East APC leader as well as Chairman, of the Progressives Governors’ Forum, PGF. His chances of emerging APC presidential candidate is however very slim, as the party appears to favour a candidate from the North. Sam Nda-Isaiah Nda-Isaiah, publisher of the Leadership newspaper is not known to have held any political office in the past and has no standing structure to put up a credible challenge for the top post. However, the constitution of Nigeria guarantees him the liberty to seek for any political office in Nigeria and the publisher-turned-politician is exercising that right to the fullest.
Posted on: Thu, 11 Sep 2014 06:16:17 +0000
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