Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2013 Aug 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Region 1836 (N15E36, Hax/alpha) produced a C1 flare at 29/0434 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. The three spotted regions on the visible disk were stable throughout this period. A 44-degree filament eruption centered near S60E00 resulted in a coronal mass ejection (CME) that is not expected to impact Earth; no Earth-directed CMEs were observed this period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity for the next three days (30 Aug - 01 Sep). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (30 Aug - 01 Sep) with coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (30 Aug - 01 Sep). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative of diminishing CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed steadily decreased from initial values near 410 km/s to end-of-period values near 350 km/s. The total field strength ranged from 5 nT to 1 nT while the Bz component ranged from +3 nT to -2 nT. The phi angle remained oriented in a negative (towards) solar sector throughout the period, with brief variability to a positive (away) sector between 29/0600 - 1200 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind speed is expected to increase to 500 km/s to 600 km/s on day one (30 Aug), and remain elevated on day two (31 Aug) with CH HSS effects. Wind speed is expected to remain enhanced on day three (01 Sep), but steadily decrease as CH HSS influence wanes. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to quiet to active levels with periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on days one and two (30 - 31 Aug) with CH HSS effects. A decrease to predominately quiet to active conditions is expected on day three (01 Sep) as CH HSS influence subsides.
Posted on: Fri, 30 Aug 2013 01:43:59 +0000