Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2013 Jul 06 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Regions 1785 (S11E24, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and 1787 (S15E43, Eai/beta-gamma) each produced several C-class flares. The largest was a C8/1n at 05/1301 UTC, followed by a C6/1f at 04/1944 UTC from Region 1787. Associated with the C6 flare was a coronal mass ejection (CME) first seen in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 04/1944 UTC and later in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 04/2012 UTC. Analysis and subsequent model output suggests this CME is not expected to be geoeffective. A Type IV radio emission was observed between 1615 and 1811 UTC, but has not yet been correlated with any CME. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with M-class (R1-Minor to R2-Moderate) flares likely and a slight chance for X-class (R3-strong or greater) flares for the forecast period (06-08 Jul). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels during the forecast period (06-08 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to continue at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind speed remained in the mid-to-upper 300 km/s range while the total field rose from about 4 nT at the beginning of the period to almost 12 nT by the end. Bz remained between +/- 7 nT. The Phi angle was mostly positive (away) with minor deflections into the negative (towards) sector throughout the period. An enhancement in the lowest energy proton flux was noted around 05/1430 UTC. Some of these observations suggest the expected transient has arrived during the past 24 hours, but evidence of its presence was not definitive. .Forecast... Mild fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field are expected through the end of the period. The disturbed conditions are associated with the transient passage and the anticipated arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) on Day 1 (06 Jul). A modest increase in solar wind speed is expected on Days 2 and 3 (07-08 Jul) with the CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the period (06-08 Jul) as the transient passes and a CH HSS becomes geoeffective. swpc.noaa.gov/
Posted on: Sat, 06 Jul 2013 00:35:53 +0000
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