Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2013 Jun 06 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. The largest event of the period was a long duration M1/Sf x-ray event (NOAA Scale R1-minor) from Region 1762 (S30W60). Associated with this event was a coronal mass ejection (CME), with a mostly south-westerly trajectory, but a slight earthward flank as well. Recent activity suggests the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration persists for Region 1762. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class (NOAA Scale R1) flare during the forecast period (06 - 08 June) due to Region 1762. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels in response to the recent coronal hole activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to continue at high to very high levels through the forecast period (06 - 08 June). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below NOAA Scale S1). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind measurements from the ACE spacecraft indicated recovery is in effect from the latest coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed decreased to below 500 km/s by the end of the period. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt remained steady near 3 nT while the Bz component ranged between +2 nT to -3 nT. Phi remained predominately positive (away) throughout the period, with isolated periods of negative (towards) orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind speed is expected to continue to recover to ambient conditions on day one (06 June) and remain as such for day two (07 June). Mid day on day three (08 June), a slight increase in wind speed is expected as another CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position in conjunction with a possible weak glancing blow from the CME observed earlier today. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels (Below NOAA Scale G1). .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one (06 June) and two (07 June). Quiet to active levels are forecast for day three (08 June) due to weak CH HSS effects and weak glancing blow CME impacts. All three days are expected to be below the NOAA Scale G1 threshold. swpc.noaa.gov/ spaceweather/
Posted on: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 01:04:27 +0000
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