Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2013 Sep 01 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Region 1836 (N11E19, Eao/beta-gamma) produced a C2/Sf flare at 31/1736 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Region 1836 showed minor growth in its trailer spot area while the other regions were stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity for the next three days (01 - 03 Sep). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next two days (01 - 02 Sep) due to continued CH HSS influence, increasing to moderate to high levels on day three (03 Sep) as CH HSS influence subsides. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (01 - 03 Sep). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative of continued CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed slowly increased from initial values near 400 km/s to end-of-period values near 440 km/s. The total field strength ranged from 9 nT to 1 nT while the Bz component ranged from +5 nT to -6 nT. .Forecast... Solar wind speed is expected to increase to 550 km/s - 650 km/s with arrival of the 30 Aug CME on day one (01 Sep). Wind speed is expected to begin decreasing, but remain elevated on day two (02 Sep), and return to nominal values on day three (03 Sep) as CME effects subside. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS effects. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (01 Sep) with arrival of the 30 Aug CME. Quiet to active conditions are expected for day two (02 Sep) and a decrease to predominately quiet conditions are expected for day three (03 Sep) as CME effects wane.
Posted on: Sun, 01 Sep 2013 03:04:23 +0000
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