Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2013 Sep 05 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 1837 (S15W47,Dso/beta) began the period producing frequent low-level C-class flares, before simplifying again and becoming less active in the later half of the period. The other three regions on the disk were unremarkable. A CME was observed coming off the SE limb along with a backside event in the NE, prior to 1200 UTC and appeared to be from the front-side of the sun. Analysis of the event indicated a slow speed at ~250km/s and a narrow limb event profile. The event is not believed to be Earth-directed at this time. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be low for the period (Sep 05 - 07). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels during the period (Sep 05 - 07). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels during the period. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... ACE data indicated slightly elevated wind speed during the period with average velocities near 450km/s. IMF Bt was weak near 4nT during the period. IMF Bz varied from 3 to -2 nT. Phi data indicated a Toward (-) solar sector orientation during most of the period. .Forecast... Solar wind speed is expected to remain increased on days one and two (Sep 05 - 06) due to a weak recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream, before recovering back to ambient condition on day three (Sep 07). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days one and two (Sep 05 - 06), with a slight chance for active levels due to CH HSS effects. A return to quiet conditions is forecast for day three (Sep 07), as CH HSS effects subside.
Posted on: Thu, 05 Sep 2013 00:56:54 +0000