Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2013 Sep 06 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Region 1836 (N13W56, Cso/beta) produced a C1/Sf flare at 05/1654 UTC. A new region, 1838 (S03E68, Hsx/Alpha) was numbered today. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period and all regions were unremarkable. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be low to very low, with a chance for a C-class flare, on Sep 06-08. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the period (Sep 06 - 08). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels during the period. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... ACE data indicated unremarkable solar wind activity. IMF phi data continued to indicate a Toward (negative-polarity) solar sector through the period as a Earth is currently under the influence of a weak CH HSS. Speed remained mildly elevated with a range of 410 to 475 km/s. IMF Bt was fairly steady in the 3 to 5 nT range. IMF Bz was weakly northward (peak 5 nT) during most of the period with brief southward excursions to as low as -3 nT. .Forecast... Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated during Sep 06 due to a weak recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speed is expected to decrease on Sep 07-08 as the CH HSS subsides. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the period (Sep 06-08) despite weak CH HSS conditions.
Posted on: Fri, 06 Sep 2013 01:30:57 +0000
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