Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2015 Jan 06 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Region 2253 (S07W18, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest event of the period, a C7/2f at 05/1747 UTC as well as a C4/1f flare at 05/2213 UTC. The region continued to be the dominant region on the disk although it appears to be simplifying magnetically. All other regions on the disk were either stable or in decay. A C3 flare was observed at 05/1459 UTC from a region just around the east limb. Old Region 2242 (S18, L=240) is likely the source of this activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for another M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare from Region 2253 during the next three days (06-08 Jan) and a slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong) flare. Old Regions 2241 (S08, L=218) and 2242 are expected to return over the next three days contributing to the probability for R1 or greater activity. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels for the forecast period (06-08 Jan). A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux event (S1-Minor) exists for the forecast period (06-08 Jan) due to potential flare activity from Region 2253. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The southern crown coronal hole high speed solar wind stream was evident at the ACE spacecraft. Wind speed began near 410 km/s and reached 590 km/s towards the end of the period. Bt peaked near 15 nT at 05/0710 UTC and was greater than 5 nT for most of the period. Bz ranged from -10 and 11 nT and phi angle was in a predominately negative (toward) sector. .Forecast... The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft is expected to continue to reflect the influence of a southern coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) for day one (06 Jan). A slow return to nominal conditions is expected by day two (07 Jan) followed by disturbed conditions on day three (08 Jan) due to effects from a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels in response to the high speed solar wind stream and prolonged periods of southward Bz. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on day one (06 Jan) because of the high speed stream. By day two (07 Jan), field conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels as effects from the southern polar CH wane. Quiet to active levels are expected on day three (08 Jan) due to anticipated effects from a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS.
Posted on: Tue, 06 Jan 2015 01:03:34 +0000
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