Professor Attahiru Jega, Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), will certainly leave the cradle of that electoral body with his head held high. Jega it was who in recent times proved to the world that Nigeria can conduct a fairly credible election that other third world countries would like to emulate. The 2011 general election was, to any rationale mind, a complete shift from the previous sham, especially those under the watch of Professor Maurice Iwu, Jega’s predecessor. Jega had promised anyone that cared to spare attention that he would do everything within his effort to give Nigerians something to cheer about. But whether he conducted the fairest and most credible election in the annals of the country’s political history, is not an issue at this point. What may add yet another feather to Jega’s cap is his boldness to register the All Progressives Congress, APC, despite swimming towards the turbulent waves of opposition from the Presidency. To many people, it was not convincing that Jega would damn any consequence to get APC duly registered as a political party. What is most interesting here is that this is the first mega party to be so registered by any electoral body after many decades of the nation’s independence. In fact, the last time this happened was in the first and second republics. Coalition of parties in Nigeria had always ended up in disarray because it was often a romance born out of strange wedlock. Though the party may be planning assiduously to penetrate the 36 states of the federation, including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, before 2015, one will not stop to wonder what will endear the party to Nigerians just for the most desirable change that is expected, should another party takes over from the Peoples’ Democratic Party, PDP, at the center. In Rivers State, for instance, and in most states of the federation, PDP has been on the cradle for approximately sixteen years now. Nigerians need a change. And that change is just expected to berth soon riding on the crest of the APC. The first eight years of PDP under the governorship of Dr. Peter Odili in Rivers State was an admixture of joy and blood: Joy in the sense that democracy had come to stay in the state, hence many were therefore waiting on the edge to enjoy the dividends of democracy. They did. At least, Odili left behind some sprawling legacies that have placed the state on the path of honor. The beautifully designed Government House, the well equipped judiciary, and the Dome State House of Assembly and a few expansive roads are some of the former Governor’s achievements that came to being on the train of the PDP government for eight years. Nevertheless, that administration also had some of its challenges. The issue of militancy posed the most serious threat to the stability of the nation as a whole with the same frequency at which it disrupted the free flow of crude oil from the Niger Delta region. Lives were lost in hundreds. Businesses were shut down. And the economy was in near state of comatose. It was a sad tale to tell. To build up from the foundation of that developmental experience, the emergence of the Governor Rotimi Amaechi government in October 26, 2007, vehemently propelled the state to a one stop shop construction site. Everywhere one turns, there is something new to point at. If it is not a model school, then it is an equipped hospital with beautiful roads linking one spot to another. Today, Rivers pupils are now privileged to eat breakfast and lunch in school, wear free uniforms, get free books and free sandals so that tomorrow no one amongst them would become a President that went to school without shoes. Computer laboratories in each of the schools, especially the model schools, are of international standard. Ordinarily, these are sterling feats that would have excited the citizens of the state to place the governor on a statesmanship position as far as the new face of Rivers state is concerned. But two genuine factors have to change that dynamics: President Goodluck Jonathan’s interest and the fact that his wife and the First Lady of the nation, Dame Patience Jonathan, comes from the state. These two factors have unarguably polarized the political interest of the state and the nation at large. As far as Jonathan sticks to his gun of seeking a second term presidency in 2015 which is the highest political office in the land, every other interest is subservient. Call it civilian dictatorship, it does not make so much difference, anyway. Without any doubt, this interest was bound to spark off some degree of misconceptions which culminated in the Rivers State crisis. Like Robert Greene said many years ago, that conflict is therapeutic, the political crisis in Rivers State which also taps its nutrients from pockets of angered face-off in other parts of the country, is expected to shape the political culture of Nigeria any time soon. Many observers have made allusion to the fact that the country may explode to smithereens if PDP continues to pilot the political affairs of the country beyond 2015. What that implies is that Nigerians were now beginning to yearn for a change in the political structure, having seen the nearly exhausted tricks of the ruling party for sixteen years running. The foregone was also enough for the indigenes of Rivers State to begin a desperate search for a change. And that change came with the registration of the APC. The coming of the new party seems to have given hope to some politicians who felt they have been undermined for too long in the state under the PDP-controlled government in the past sixteen years. Though one may be experiencing some level of quietness now in the state due to the efficacy of the new APC, this is understandably so because everybody seems to be waiting on the touchline to see what the next political development may bring to the state and the country. The Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi, has been widely alleged to be romancing with the leadership of the party, especially in the south-west and far north regions, the coast is not yet clear as to what happens next or where the pendulum will eventually swing. The suspension of Amaechi and the likelihood that he may be expelled from the party at the “most appropriate time” also gives credence to the assumption that anything that may possibly change the political colour of the state is in the air. Rivers state is very much on the radar of APC for a perfect reason: the biggest voting strength of the entire south-south geo-political zone is in Rivers State. That is approximately two million votes for the president. Besides priding itself in abundant economic potentials by virtue of oil and gas acquisition, the state forms the template of hope for any presidential candidate that desires to run away with victory in the region. It is vital. Political disciples of President Goodluck Jonathan are understandably jittery at this point, given the implication of his face-off with Amaechi. On the other hand, those who have vowed to swim or sink with the Governor are by all intents and purposes pushing the Governor to go the whole hug in the quarrel by stoutly dumping the “already sinking” PDP for APC. It is a political calculation and may not necessarily come out favourably for those proponents. Now the basic question is, can Amaechi actually dump the PDP? Can he truly bring down APC and capture the state for the new party? Here is where the main battle lies. It is a fact that there is enough money to prosecute that plan all the way, but is there also enough political structure to make it work! Irrespective of the fact that the structure of the state PDP has been pulled off his grip, there is no arguing the fact that the new party cannot absorb the state before the next general election, given effective planning and decentralization of enough funds. For instance, the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, a major partner in the new merger party applied for registration to INEC on March 28, 2009. It was duly registered by the electoral body on December 26, 2009, in preparation for the April 2011 general election. Within two years, CPC was able to give the PDP a good fight for its money, despite being on the ground for sixteen years. Who says that with two years to the next election in 2015, APC cannot make some remarkable inroads into the states of the region and possibly put the PDP on the flight! In the result of the last election, CPC pulled as much as over ten million votes against Jonathan’s twenty two million. Things have far changed now. There is no guarantee that PDP can still enjoy that privilege of general acceptability across the country. Some people have concluded already that should Amaechi decides to abandon PDP, he will be deliberately committing political suicide. But one will rather see that decision as a great test to measure how popular the governor is in the state. In Rivers State, it is an open contest, and people seem to be waiting with excitement to see the sprouting of APC structure not necessarily to thwart the hope of giving the President a block vote but to seek a regional control of political affairs in the state and the region.
Posted on: Tue, 27 Aug 2013 13:01:53 +0000