Purnartha - 01-Oct-2013 - Analysis of events & factors likely to have near, medium term impact (To receive these updates in your mailbox - just call our toll free number: 1800 - 266 - 0161 or send an e-mail to support@purnartha giving your name and phone number) 1) Current Account Deficit stands at $21.8 Billion which is 4.9% of total GDP. Expectation was $20 billion. These numbers are in line with the expectation. In the coming quarters we will see effect of Government’s action to decrease import on Gold. So we might see CAD of nearly 2% of GDP in coming quarters. Possible effects: a) This will add support to rupee 2) Yesterday NIFTY went lower by nearly 100 points. Factors which led to this: a) China PMI numbers were lower after several successive good set of HSBC PMI numbers. b) It created pressure on metal stocks. Tata Steel went down nearly 7%. c) Banking stocks were under pressure. Many of the banking stocks are trying to reach to their recent lows. d) Also US government shutdown deadline was creating pressure. 3) Options a) Put call ratio stands at 0.84. b) NIFTY has highest open interest at 5700 put level on downside. Maximum open interest in 5700 put has been added when this option was in 80 to 90 price zone. Now option price of this contract has become 137. So there might come some sort of position covering which may lead NIFTY further down by 70 to 100 points. Below 5700 highest open interest is at 5500 level. c) So ultimately on downside NIFTY is heading towards 5500 level on downside. 4) Currency market a) Rupee closed 62.6 against dollar. It was quite a volatile session. 5) Commodity market a) Crude oil is moving lower due to no further global political risk. Also inventories are going higher. b) We might see Brent going below $103 and crude below $97. It is positive for the Indian Equity Market.
Posted on: Tue, 01 Oct 2013 08:39:55 +0000
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