Quick analysis on North Chennai MP constituency based on 2011 assembly election data: There are 6 assembly seats under North Chennai and they are 1) Thiruvottiyur, 2) RK Nagar, 3) Perambur, 4) Kolathur, 5) Thiru Vi Ka Nagar 6) Royapuram and DMK won only one seat (Kolathur) out of the 6 ** Total votes polled in 2011 assembly election = 846941 or 74.70 % ** DMK alliance = 342477 (40.43%) ** ADMK alliance = 466340 (55.06%) ** BJP on its own = 11021 (1.30%) (BJP got 3.54% in 2009 MP election) Let us first analyze DMK alliance: The alliance partners who are not there with DMK for 2014 are as below; 1) PMK (3% or 25408 votes) 2) Congress (2% or 16939 votes) If we minus the above said votes from the DMK tally (342477), the number stands at = 300130 votes. Votes that DMK alliance likely to get from the new allies that have come to the DMK fold for 2014.... 1) MMK (1% or 8469 votes). 2) DMK will also get additional 3% votes (25408). These votes went to ADMK alliance because of 2G, Srilankan issue, DMK’s alliance with congress, power cut, alleged Kalaignar family dominance etc After considering the above, DMK alliance’s vote share stands at (300130 + 8469 + 25408) = 334007 (39.43%). This is the minimum guarantee votes for DMK. Now let us look at ADMK: The alliance partners who are not there with ADMK for 2014 are as below; 1) DMDK (10.06% or 85202 votes. (DMDK got these votes when it contested independently in 2009) 2) Communists (2% or 16939 votes) 3) MMK (1 % or 8469 votes) 4) 7% or 59286 votes due to anti-incumbency votes in 2011 against the then DMK Govt due to many issues listed above. (Note: out of this, DMK will get 3 % and rest will go to BJP alliance. Media has been pointing out this as a split of votes that ideally should have come to DMK’s kitty. This is what the media calling as “BJP alliance benefitting ADMK”) If we consider all of the above, what ADMK gets is. (466340) - (85202 + 16939 + 8469 + 59286) = 296444 (35.00%) votes. So.... DMK+ = 334007 (39.43%), ADMK = 296444 (35.00%), Vote difference = 37563. Both of them put together will collect 74.43% of the votes polled. BJP+ is considerably stronger here than they are in other constituencies and hence, let us look at them as well BJP - 29982 (3.54%) + DMDK - 85202 (10.06%) + PMK - 25408 (3%) + MDMK - 25408 (3%) + Modi Wave - 25408 (3%) + anti-incumbency votes due to ADMK Govt - 33878 (4%) + IJK - 4235 (0.5%)... So, they stand to get 229521 (27.10%) If we purely go by 2011 (and in one case 2009 data) election results, DMK seems to march ahead of other parties. This will further be strengthened by the rigorous and planned campaign by MK Stalin, his image as the next leader of the DMK, huge reception ot his road campaign, votes from new voters and neutral people due to ouster of Alagiri. Also, power cut, asset case against Jayalalitha and continuous negative image on her campaign style might affect the voting pattern of the people. Note: Pls understand the above analysis was based on 2011 data and in one place 2009 data. The above mentioned data might be impacted by how the newly added voters vote and the increased voting percentage. (Analysis by Kokkarakko Sowmiyan annan and translated by me)
Posted on: Sun, 30 Mar 2014 16:37:13 +0000
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