Quick explanation on what went wrong: (Left/Top Image): There was some light snow showers falling over Western/Central PA along with an inverted trough, which was creating rising heights(Convergence/Red) over that location. When you have rising air, you create moisture..however, where there is rising air, you need that air to fall. So, between Eastern PA and Eastern NJ, we had sinking air (Divergence/Purple). Over the ocean, we had a massive amount of rising air from the low pressure system with a ton of moisture. Again, that rising air needs to fall and it fell right over Eastern PA and NJ. When the moisture over the ocean was pushing Westward, it was driving against sinking air and fizzling before reaching New Jersey. This happened most of the night. (Right/Bottom Image): After the inverted trough over Central PA started to dissipate, the dry slot (sinking air) over New Jersey was able to be overcome by the moisture pushing in from the East and allowing air to rise and moisture to fill in on radar. This happened way to late for any significant accumulation to happen for Western New Jersey, however Eastern NJ will still get some moderate snow fall. Again, I am sorry New Jersey for the busted forecast but I can only live and learn from this system. I am by no means perfect and will have other blown forecasts in the future but I always try my best to get it right and keep everyone informed on what to expect. This one will sting for awhile. Sorry! -Jeff-
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 07:31:52 +0000
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