Quite an interesting overview from the Guardians blog on the elections: Eight things weve learnt from the local elections First, though, here are eight things weve learnt from the election results. 1. Parties can win an election without winning. On paper, Labour clearly won. They have gained more than 250 seats (the BBC figures have been ahead of the ones on our result chart, but thats because our figures only get updated when full council results come in), and they are easily ahead on projected national share. If Britons voted like this in a general election, Ed Miliband would be prime minister. But it hasnt felt like a victory for them. If you want to know who feels as if theyve won an election, ignore what politicians say, turn the volume down and look at their faces on TV. Whos happiest? Its definitely Ukip first, then probably the Conservatives, then Labour, then Ukip. Thats because, given the likelihood of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives closing between now and 2015, Labour know this isnt good enough to offer a strong chance of victory. 2. Ukips chances of winning the European elections dont look as good as they did this time yesterday. Their national vote share is down six points compared to last year, and, although there must be some people who voted Ukip in the Euros and for another party in the locals, there must be a chance that the polls saying Ukip would win have got it wrong. 3. Labour now fully realise that Ukip presents them with a serious electoral threat. This shouldnt be a surprise. Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin have written a very good book (which I keep plugging) making this very case. But it has taken a while for the message to get through. 4. Labours post-election inquest will probably be more serious than the Conservatives. Journalists expected these elections to trigger a mini crisis in the Conservative party. But there has been no evidence of that at all. A few Eurosceptics have renewed their call for a pact with Ukip, but this is an absolute non-starter, and they know it. Generally, the Eurosceptics have decided not to cause trouble. But the public comments from Labour figures suggest the party is going to conduct a proper post-mortem, not into Ed Milibands leadership (they are stuck with him, for better or worse), but into whether their Ukip strategy is correct. And thats because ... 5. None of the parties have a clue what to do about Ukip. Politicians from all the main parties have been saying much the same thing: that voters have sent them a message, and that they must listen. But there is no real agreement what the message is, or what they should do about it. 6. A second hung parliament looks increasingly inevitable. Four-party politics is increasingly entrenched in English politics (as in Scottish and Welsh politics, only they have a different four parties), and that makes it harder for any of them to win outright. 7. The Lib Dems are vulnerable even in their strongholds. Last year they thought they had hit rock bottom in the local elections. They hadnt. Although they are holding on in some Lib Dem areas, in others they are losing seats. The BBC say even Vince Cable would lose his seat on the basis of todays results. 8. London really is a different from the rest of the country electorally. It seems to be the only place in England impervious to Ukips charms. Like Scotland. (Perhaps if Scotland goes independent we Londoners could join up with them, share the pound, and leave the rest of England with something Ukip-ish, like the groat.
Posted on: Fri, 23 May 2014 19:10:28 +0000
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