Rainy weather in store for my local area here in Charleston and surrounding areas: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 223 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LOW IS DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH AMPLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS AND OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT STAYING NORTH OF OUR ZONES. THEN ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE GULF COAST. UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RAMPS UP. LATE THIS MORNING MOST AREAS ARE UNDER HEAVY CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEAST GA WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TOWARD 70F. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THE HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS OF AN ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND OFF THE COAST. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN VERY MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA DUE TO A LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE SOME INSOLATION IS ONGOING AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY INSTEAD OF A MORE MARITIME SOUTHEAST FETCH. WE MAINTAINED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT STILL THINK THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS LOW. SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT...HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM SUNSET TO MIDNIGHT...WHEN THE AXIS OF THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PULLS A CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT...AND ANY WEAK INSTABILITY THAT WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE WANING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL THUS REMAIN QUITE HIGH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS. A DECENT GRADIENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVIDENT OVERNIGHT...AS NORTHERLY FLOW FIRST DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES FAR NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 DEGREES FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WHILE DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED FORCING PERSIST WITH A SECONDARY SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE AND H25 JET PASSING ALOFT. WE COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND CONTINUED LIFTING OCCUR AS THE THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NEAR THE COAST. OVERCAST SKIES ALONG WITH AMPLE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO LOW INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN COOLER UNDER CLOUDS AND THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY...THEN COOL DOWN DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECLINE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BULK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE SFC LOW AND ADVANCING H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. HOWEVER...LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE THAT LINGERS OVER THE AREA. NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS...IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
Posted on: Sun, 16 Mar 2014 19:12:39 +0000
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