Random thoughts: Ive been looking into historical civilizations sustainability and cultural innovation; relative to, faced adverse conditions(climate change, hostile neighbors, collapse of essential trading partners, environmental problems), comparatively. [sparked by a conversation with Jonathan Beatty] Jared M. Diamond, in his book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, identifies five factors that contribute to collapse in society: climate change, hostile neighbors, collapse of essential trading partners, environmental problems, and failure to adapt to environmental issues. This builds upon his previous book Guns, Germs, and Steel. Using those books(along with A Study of History by Arnold J. Toynbee) as general guides to the severity needed to create a negative feedback loop large enough to start a collapse of a civilization, Im starting to come to the conclusion that the current problems we have(based on Diamonds definition) are completely manageable. Having said that, the current problems of modern civilizations(note: when I refer to modern civilizations Im focusing more on first world) do have the potential to start the collapse of civilization(especially failure to adapt to environmental issues, as stated in Diamonds Collapse), but I think that these factors havent exacerbated to the level needed to be hopeless. I came to this conclusion after researching the British historian Arnold J. Toynbees theory of decay poised in his 12-volume history book A Study of History . In Arnold J. Toynbees theory of decay he argues that the breakdown of civilizations is not caused by loss of control over the physical environment, over the human environment, or by attacks from outside. Rather, it comes from the deterioration of the Creative Minority, which eventually ceases to be creative and degenerates into merely a Dominant Minority (who forces the majority to obey without meriting obedience). He argues that creative minorities deteriorate due to a worship of their former self, by which they become prideful, and fail adequately to address the next challenge they face. I honestly believe that Toynebees theory of decay outlines the deciding factor to the future of modern civilizations. Furthermore with an adequate creative minority, the adversity could trigger a new golden age of innovation that could dwarf the industrial age(note: claim based on relative size of civilizations and access to knowledge). I would be interested in others thoughts, negative or positive. (foot notes, for those interested) A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee nobsword.blogspot/1993_10_17_nobsword_archive.html Guns, germs, and steel: the fates of human societies, by Jared Diamond https://openlibrary.org/works/OL276558W/Guns_germs_and_steel Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, by Jared Diamond (not available for free online yet, sorry)
Posted on: Sun, 05 Oct 2014 06:21:44 +0000