Re: Incumbency and Opportunity: forecasting Nigeria’s 2015 elections WHY AND WHERE ZAINAB USMAN AND OLIVER OWEN WENT WRONG BY ABBATI BAKO,psc, Kent, UK The experts assert that prediction or imagination in politics (in most cases) defies scholars. But, most possibly; if the mixture of both qualitative and quantitative pathways are followed with a view to find out some answers from research; I understand that precision and accurate or near accurate and precise result in the research may be achieved. In my candid view, the two social researchers (Zainab Usman and Oliver Owen) failed to use certain indices that will make their research clear and understandable. For example, they failed to clearly identify the soft theorem areas for APC party within the 36 states (and Abuja), the battle ground areas and the swing areas for the opposition party APC. And again, to identify in a clear terms the same (said) areas for the ruling party PDP. Second, when did the two social researchers conducted poll opinion survey in all the 36 states (and Abuja), 774 LG areas, 8018 wards and 120,000 voting units (now 150,000 voting units) for having precise and accurate result for the purpose of analysis on the elections of 2015? Most probably, the two presidential contenders in 2015 presidential election of both APC and PDP (Jonathan and Buhari) are repeated contestants and both of them have learned from the past experience that the strategies to be applied by both contestants and their parties must be different (in 2015) from the past in 2003, 2007 and 2011. There was no merger of parties in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011. So the pattern of the game may change in 2015. There is no doubt that the S/W, N/W and N/E will be the soft theorem areas for APC party in 2015 presidential election. And these three zones may give 75% or more (or almost) of votes to APC opposition party in 2015 and the three zones have more than 40m registered voters, out of 70.4million. On the other hand, the N/C central zone may prove to be battle ground areas for both parties. But APC may have an upper hand (a little) more than PDP ruling party. The S/S zone (except Rivers state that may give APC more than 45% of votes to be cast) is a battle ground areas for APC opposition party and a soft theorem areas for PDP ruling party. Also, S/E zone areas are soft theorem areas for PDP and battle ground areas for APC (except Imo state that APC may get 35% or more votes). In Zainab/Owen’s words President Goodluck Jonathan faces a tough battle against a potential APC candidate and a presidential run-off is a distinct possibility. I dont subscribe to your view that a run-off presidential election is a distinct possibility in 2015 because the APC opposition party may have upper hand than the ruling party PDP due to the fact that APC have more populous states (with large registered voters) as their theorem areas than the PDP ruling party (Kano, Lagos, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Oyo, and Rivers states). And again, majority of Nigerians have accumulated (within all the 6 geopolitical zones) anger on the PDPs leadership style in Nigeria. Especially that the PDP central government has been badly dented and projected in a bad light; due to massive corruption, insecurity and individual economic aridity among Nigerians. So, in my candid view, the issue of run-off presidential election doesnt even arise (if free, fair, credible, standard and acceptable election is to be conducted in Nigeria come the year 2015). To be continued Abbati Bako,psc,UK
Posted on: Sun, 09 Nov 2014 21:45:40 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015