Reasons GEJ must choose to go Published on Sunday, 28 September 2014 Written by Dr. Ola O. Olatawura Hits: 1793 During the Yar’Adua succession crisis in December 2009, the Daily Trust published an analytical article of mine favourable to GEJ’s debacle and considered influential in the ensuing litigation. As Nigeria edges closer to the periodic 2015 elections, I hope humbly that this piece would be equally portent. President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan GCFR (“GEJ”) is at a political crossroads of his tenure. While My certain controversial groups promote his candidature, many across the nation are resolute that he must leave office. GEJ now needs to know and listen to what his mentor, the late Justice Ungbuku, the former Chief Judge of Rivers and Baylesa states, and another non-aligned transited sage - who personally foretold his emergence - would, using their knowledge of law, history, and politics, think and say. The 10 points below represent what I firmly believe would represent their joint position about GEJ contesting in 2015. As a result of the eight-year rule limit in section 137 (1) (b) CFRN 1999, GEJ’s office holding tenure would legally expire in 2015. This is the conclusion that results from a lead article titled “Constitutional Algorithms on Tenure of Office” in Frontiers Bulletin, a forthcoming subscription law review that I am the editor-in-chief. Though a week is a generally long time in politics, four years is considered enough tenure time, while eight years is privileged tenure time, not given to GEJ. If GEJ has to fight his way through the courts to contest again or continue, he risks being branded a dishonourable or dishonest individual who will subvert intra-party agreements or the constitution for his personal agenda. Acts for overstaying in office are constitutional breaches and “misconduct”. In this case, he sets himself up to be impeached by the Senate or cited before the Code of Conduct. He consequently may be barred from holding public office for up to 10 years. Clearly, there will be internecine problems within his party and in the country if GEJ stays beyond 2015. When General Yakubu Gowon postponed the return to civilian rule, his fall was rightly predicted and a coup took place in 1975. When the Shehu Shagari regime “won” the 1983 election for another term through improper strategies, a military coup removed the regime from power. When General Ibrahim Babangida halted the announcement of the 1993 presidential election result after eight years in office after promising he would leave, he was forced to “step aside” after civil and military opposition. After General Sani Abacha set about to prolong his rule after seizing power, he encountered domestic and international resistance culminating in sanctions and opposition by military and civilian forces. Similarly, when the regime of President Olusegun Obasanjo took steps to promote a “third-term”, the polity was heated up for a span of two years of his tenure by elite civilian resistance. For this reason, many of his brilliant footsteps were easy to dismantle by retrogressive forces. GEJ will personally and greatly benefit as an honourable man of his word. For President Obasanjo’s prominence in global and national orders is based on keeping his promise to hand over to a civilian regime in 1979. Otherwise, there will still be doubts that President Jonathan will attempt to succeed himself in 2019. Also, for a very long time, no Ijaw or greater South – South man will be trusted in national politics and alliances. A commitment to leave without contesting will give GEJ the focus and the will to fully and effectively prosecute Boko Haram and unravel the causes. If he wins the war, he will be a permanent national hero. His controversial staying in power will attract more support for Boko Haram or milder but yet dangerous anarchist groups. Leaving will give the GEJ family political immunity and respect nationally and internationally. This is the avoidable political mistake to be learnt from the post 1993 treatment of General Ibrahim Babangida, after he signalled he would not hand over and aborted the June 12, 1993 elections. On the other hand, General Abudulsalam Abubabakar’s deliberate short term stay in office effectively has given him indulgence for any shortcoming associated with his tenure. From independence till 2010, from Azikiwe to Yar’Adua, all civilian leaders have been expelled, shooed out, or died in office. If GEJ leaves in 2015, he would be the first civilian head of state and president of the country to voluntarily and respectfully vacate office. There is growing perception that GEJ will have limited personal energy to do more for the country after six years in power than before. Scientifically, optimum energy is expended by most leaders in the first five years in power. After that, dross corruption, and political abuse usually set in. Very few leaders have the capacity for “good” long-term reign. To establish himself or to continue in 2015, he is more likely to be befriended and misled by selfish and desperate people. A president relying on this calibre of people for support puts the nation and himself at security risk. Leaving now will allow other South-South persons to be president in the near future. Indeed, it is possible for GEJ to be succeeded by an excellent South-South candidate who may even rule till 2024. In other words, he risks being blamed for promoting Ijaw cause over other excellent South – South presidential materials. Notwithstanding his achievements, GEJ can never achieve all that is possible or desirable for Nigeria. His staying may suggests he likens himself to a messiah. This will prove controversial. Staying will also likely be counterproductive as it will allow the undoubted weaknesses of his administration to flourish. There is strong belief that GEJ is fast moving away from God’s direction, care and providence. This is because he has never pushed for any post on his own before. His independent act of seeking re-election through reliance on notorious people promoting him is inconsistent with God’s pattern in his life and is a declaration of c from a “jealous” God. In conclusion, for the sake of himself, party and family, GEJ must voluntarily go. He will not be lacking in envious and challenging responsibilities should he leave. Otherwise, from the understanding of law, politics and history lessons, he may have to involuntarily go. Olatawura is a senior partner in Goldmann Transnational Lawyers, Abuja, and the editor -in- chief of frontiers bulletin.
Posted on: Sun, 05 Oct 2014 08:19:43 +0000
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