Reports indicate that China is building up several reefs in the Philippines Kalayaan Island Group (KIG) within the disputed Spratlys archipelago. These news should not surprise anyone. For one, it strengthens Chinas claim and solidifies its occupation of the disputed territory. Build-up activities have the ultimate effect of ensuring that the here-to-fore sparse real estate could be occupied more comfortably. Furthermore, build-up represents investments, sunk costs that will discourage any future pull-out or withdrawal from the reefs. In effect, the present Chinese government is tying the hands of future Chinese governments to commit to these enhanced territories. The bottom line is it will be very difficult to dislodge the Chinese from these disputed reefs. Of course, it is impossible. Since this build-up is the consequence of adopted policy, then a change in policy could turn things around. The key here is to identify what must happen so Chinese policy will change. Perhaps, the completion of the Code of Conduct governing the behavior of claimant-countries in the disputed areas will be an important factor. In addition, the behavior of the United States (and Japan to some extent) will be another.
Posted on: Fri, 29 Aug 2014 10:20:31 +0000
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