Rich’s Commentary: Looking at some numbers this morning, we came across an interesting stat: the S&P 500 is up 12% year-to-date. Shockingly, the index is up a little over 12% in just the past month. Putting that into perspective; virtually the entire year’s worth of performance has come in just the past 30 days. We are not sure if that is good or bad, but it makes for an interesting factoid for you guys to use around the holiday punchbowl this year... Want another factoid? According to our sources, while the S&P is up 12% ytd, long/short hedge fund returns are averaging in the low-single-digits for 2014. Seasoned market-watchers will tell you that this disparity between fund performance and the overall market performance will lend itself to a continued rally into year-end as fund managers look to chase the rally and window dress their portfolios. By the way, for those of you keeping score, the S&P is up for 12 of the past 14 sessions, and both the Dow and S&P closed at records again yesterday... Meanwhile, the pressure on Brent crude continues as chatter about a non-effective OPEC meeting builds. Exxon Mobil and Chevron are contributing negative 24 points to Dow at last look... Regarding OPECs meeting in Vienna later this week; a former partner of mine at LaBranche and author of the brilliant GeoStrat Letter, Robert Hardy, notes that unless OPEC makes MAJOR cuts in production at Thursdays meeting, it will have little impact given the mounting supply from non-OPEC members... With oil prices and popular energy indices down about 25% over the past three months, many energy investors are wondering when the bleeding will stop... Finally, some traders we speak to suspect that tomorrows Noreaster may have many of their compatriots heading out today for the Thanksgiving holiday – leaving skeleton crews, which can sometimes make for less efficient markets... Moving on, the Dow just made a small push to session-highs, while volume is below average with ~230M shares on the tape at this time. We are anticipating lighter volume levels due to the holiday-shortened week; however, look for a burst of volume on todays close due to important re-weightings in a few MSCI indices... Technically, If the weakness in the S&P 500 extends, look to 2064/2065 (yesterdays lows), for potential support. Initial resistance is seen at 2071, with next resistance up at the 2076-level... Meanwhile, in the trading pits, Brent crude has dropped back below the $80/barrel-level as traders weigh a the better than expected GDP revision and a disappointing drop in consumer confidence ahead of Thursdays important OPEC meeting. Gold is following silver higher, trading near a four-week high, while Bonds are also showing strength, dropping the 10-year Treasury yield below the 2.3%-level, (2.296% to be exact. Lastly, if you are off tomorrow and traveling for the holiday, please be safe --- the weather dude says it could get real nasty out there... Have a tremendous day!
Posted on: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 18:42:37 +0000
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