Russia could just be securing the other side of the narrow strip of land that connects Crimea to the rest of Ukraine, but it is more likely that they are preparing the other side for a major incursion into easter Ukraine from the south while military forces also sweep in from the north and east. Given that the west is committed to making Russia pay in sanctions for Crimea, the Russians may decide that they want to ensure they get the most value for their money. There have already been deaths in ethnic classes in Eastern Ukraine which gives the Russians a pretext for occupying all areas of Ukraine where ethnic Russians are either a majority or a significant percentage of the population. It is also even possible, although slightly less probable, that Putin may apply the Go Big or Go Home philosophy and invade the entirety of Ukraine and install a puppet government. This is less likely however, as the nationalistic Ukrainians have already demonstrated a willing to resist even at the cost of death, so the occupation of western Ukraine would be very bloody and an armed insurgency resorting to terrorist attacks of the puppet regime and Russian forces has a high probability of taking root. Furthermore, the Russian pretext for invasion (to safe guard ethnic Russians is much weaker for justifying occupying western Ukraine. I predicted a civil war and Russian intervention, first with military forces without national insignia which could claim to be local militia several days before Russia moved to take control of Crimea. I was expecting the Russians to move on all of east Ukraine from the start, but now I see that it made sense to secure the most strategic important Crimean peninsula first as a fete acompli while also testing western resolve and simultaneously establishing the pattern for other ethnically Russian districts to follow the same path. Finally, this also provided enough time for Putin to use the Crimea issue to galvanize domestic support for intervention to protect and safeguard ethnic Russians from the new regime that they are describing as fascist. From the moment of the incursion into Crimea, and internet campaign in Russia was launched encouraging Russian citizens to travel to Ukraine (ostensibly as tourists) and boost the numbers of ethnic Russian protesters against the new government in Kiev. By the time Ukraine asserted border control turning away the droves of Russians trying to enter Ukraine, this action is subject to spin, suggesting that Ukraines unwillingness to let Russian citizens into the country as tourists, or to visit friends and relatives, or do business, is only further evidence that the new government in Ukraine is anti-Russian. It is hard to predict the timetable of the rest of the invasion, but it is noteworthy that Russian military forces have been deployed on the borders of Ukraine since before the invasion of Crimea under the pretext of military practices. I am expecting that Russia will move into eastern Ukraine as soon as the Crimean referendum results are publicized, the conclusion of which, without any need for rigging the vote, will be a very high percentage in favour to splitting from Ukraine. Consider that Quebec separatists in Canada have held two referendums on separation despite the efforts of successive governments to address their linguistic and cultural concerns. Despite Prime Minster Trudeaus success in making French an Official language of Canada, the results of the 1980 referendum was 60% against separation and 40% in favour. The results of the second referendum in 1995 had razor thin margins of 50.6% against separation and 49.4% in favour. If the next, English Prime Minster after Trudeau, or any other successive Federal government had repealed the law that made French an official language there is no doubt that the referendum on separation would have resulted in a very solid yes vote. This is what is happening in Ukraine. Yanukovych, an ethnic Russian that does not even speak Ukrainian passed a law to make Russian and official language and had school textbooks modified to include Russian aspects of Ukrainian history. The new unity government fired the education minister and repealed the law making Russian an official language in Ukraine. The Russian do not need to fix the voting in this referendum, not will the voters be subject to the coercion that the West claims is happening with Crimean citizens asked to vote with a gun to their heads. The Truth is, Crimea has always had semi-autonomous state status and the majority of the Crimean population are ethnic Russians that have always considered themselves to be Russians rather the Ukrainians. Even if the west had agreed (against the wishes of the government in Kiev) that a referendum to decide the fate of Crimea was acceptable but only after Russian forces withdrew and with enough lead time to allow both sides of the referendum equal opportunity to campaign for their side, the results would likely be to separate and join Russia, albeit probably with a smaller majority in favour. Russia, however, is unconcerned with weather the rest of the world acknowledges the legitimacy of the Ukrainian referendum and are rushing it in order to add achieve the following goals: 1) Move fast to make the separation of Crimea, and possibly also the annexation of Crimea into Russia a fete accompli giving Ukraine and the international community as little time to formulate strategies to counter, or even delay the process 2) Use the successful results of Crimean separation from Ukraine as a template for other heavily Russian populated parts of Ukraine (in the east and south) to follow suit; 3) enrage Ukrainian nationalists and stir up anti-Russian sentiment which increases the probability of ethnic clashes leading to violence and death; (So far working to plan). 4) Use the ethnic clashes and deaths of ethnic Russians to support Moscows claim that the new Ukrainian government and the nationalist Ukrainians that have made up the bulk of the Protester movement are hostile to ethnic Russians and pose a clear and present danger to the lives of ethnic Russians within Ukraine. 4) Extend the pretext of military intervention to save lives of ethnic Russians and invade and occupy eastern and southern Ukraine. The areas which are most like to be invaded and occupied by the Russian Military are the blue areas of the map which represent where predominantly ethnic Russians supported the democratically elected Victor Yanukovych, who the Russians still claim is the legitimate President of Ukraine in exile even if, as Putin has admitted, he has no political future in Ukraine.
Posted on: Sat, 15 Mar 2014 19:01:58 +0000
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