Russian gas and peace: peace in Ukraine suddenly on the agenda as winter draws near I am starting off with something unheard of before! Last night in Gorlovka, DNR, Novorossia (E. Ukraine) there was a joint PEACEFUL meeting of Ukraine army and Novorossia military commanders with the representatives of Russia and OSCE. Russia was represented by General Alexander Lentsov, Assistant Commander of Infantry of the Russian Federation. The military on all sides were discussing why ceasefire isn’t working – the civilian quarters are still being bombed. The participants were trying to solidify the ceasefire agreements. This info in Russian: starts at 2:20 to 4:40. Although no agreements were reached and Ukraine reps refused to talk to the media, the major breakthrough is that the military on both sides is at least willing to talk to each other, instead of shooting. Although this word wasn’t spoken, but in fact the military were discussing the new border between Novorossia and Ukraine, de-facto recognizing the new state. De-facto Kiev already recognized our independence, says DNR head Zakharchenko. Video – Rus. To say that such a meeting constitutes a massive breakthrough is to say nothing. I said in LRL4: Predictions Coming True; Mind Control in Ukraine that Ukraine and Novorossia will eventually have to agree on peace – they will have no choice. Incidentally, the closer we get to the winter, the more desperate the Ukraine/Kiev junta side will become to agree on something; the more malleable their position will become. Poroshenko may be a US stooge, but he is also an oligarch, hence survivor par excellence. He knows that if he doesn’t do everything he can so that his country can survive this winter, by next spring he will have another maidan on his hands, and he will have Yulia Tymoshenko breathing down his neck – and Yulia’s breathing is deadly. She is bound to topple Poroshenko on a new wave of public discontent. Poroshenko knows all about it, after all he was one of the original financiers and instigators of the 2004 Orange revolution, seen next to Yushchenko and Tymoshenko delivering victory speeches. Of course the closer we get to winter, the more EU itself is sounding alarm bells. Both EU and Ukraine were audacious during warm months, when the need in Russian gas was low and reserves in both Ukraine and EU high. But come winter, the spread changes dramatically. Prediction: the closer we get to winter, the more agreeable and malleable both EU and the Ukraine junta will become. I won’t be surprised if EU sanctions against Russia will be quietly forgotten and demurely set aside. “We were just joking,” they’ll say. “Can happen between the best of friends. Can you please allow our goods back into the Russian market? And can you please continue supplying us with Russian gas?” This process has already started. I have this advise for Russia’s leadership: Don’t trust these announcements much. These are not the people to trust, they are the same neocons and neoliberals who were yelling that Russia was aggressor just several short months ago. Although, sure – dialogue is always a great idea. Talking and finding points of mutual agreement is what Russian diplomacy always excelled at. Of course the difficulty always was to find someone lucid enough on the other side to talk to. It seems only the FEAR of their own hardship can get some sense into the EU politicians. Obviously, the fact that their efforts to create the area of instability in Ukraine due to their ulterior motives, caused immense suffering and a brutal civil war, concerns them not. Absolutely the same process is happening in Ukraine, except there are even fewer people with whom it’s possible to reason in Kiev. It will take time for the EU to truly change leadership, but it’ll happen. It will be a tedious and unpleasant process. The population of Europe has the power to change the EU leadership, therefore changing the continent’s course, but many are still duped by the MSM. Present day EU has been hijacked by the Transatlantic-centric neocons, and on the economic side, by US/UK-centric banksters. However, the awakening has started. And of course, here it is! What do you know! During Berlin meeting between Russia, very worried EU, and clueless Ukraine, Ukraine promised to pay for a large portion of its $5bln+ gas debt to Russia. What’s new is that EU now gives personal guarantees that the Ukraine deadbeat will fulfil its promise. How sweet! As soon as the heating season starts looming, how much more agreeable the EU and Ukraine get! What an amazing metamorphosis from the summer bellicose and hateful rhetoric! Listen to this info in Russian, including charts: starts at 7:20. After all this, is there any way to respect or treat seriously such people? Think not. Gas price and Ukraine debt to Gasprom: Ukraine will get Russian gas if they pay $3.1 bln out of $5.3 bln they owe Gasprom. In the future gas supply will be pre-paid only; the price is $385, which is a compromise. This is a $100 discount to the EU gas price. In reality, many EU countries pay less, which depends on volume and how long-term their agreement with Gasprom is. But since Ukraine never made long-term agreements with Russia, and even the ones they had made, keep being broken, they are not eligible for discounts. If Ukraine fulfills these requirements, it will receive 5bln cubic meters of gas, which should be enough for the winter… if it’s warm. The likelihood is that Ukraine may need much more gas, as they’ve been lying about their true gas reserves. In that case, they will likely start siphoning EU gas as it happened so many times before. Let’s remember that just before being overturned by the maidan coup in February 2014, Yanukovich signed the deal with Russia according to which the nearly bankrupt Ukraine would have been getting the much-needed gas at $220. Belarus, the member of the Customs Union, gets Russian gas practically for free, at $180, making Belorussian economy very competitive compared to the EU. This in part accounts for the so-called “Belorussian miracle” – stability, great infrastructure, robust economy, etc. I might do a piece about that at some point. So, the inevitable conclusion is that it’s so much more profitable to be friends with Russia. Let’s compare this to Ukraine and the 2014 violent Kiev coup under anti-Russian slogans. What did they achieve? They lost Crimea and at least Donbass. Donbass in 2013 was responsible for 30% of the Ukraine GDP. Grivna is drastically down despite Kiev cooking the books and world banksters being complicit in propping up the dying grivna. Inflation is skyrocketing. Ukraine is about to freeze in the winter.
Posted on: Sun, 19 Oct 2014 23:32:08 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015