S.F. Mayor Ed Lee election challengers hard to find State Sen. Mark Leno’s early exit from the mayoral sweepstakes has Mayor Ed Lee’s critics casting about for a candidate for next year’s election — but at this point, persuading someone to jump in is a hard sell. The combination of Lee’s incumbency, labor support, strong base among Asian Americans and tech backers with deep pockets — and a proven willingness to spend big cash on independent shadow campaigns — would give any candidate pause. Jim Stearns, the political consultant who helped derail Lee’s plans to let the Golden State Warriors build an arena on the waterfront, tells us a recent poll conducted on behalf of Lee’s adversaries shows the mayor’s popularity slipping. “When you scratch the surface, there is a lot of dissatisfaction — and that could easily increase over the next 12 months,” Stearns said. But others who have taken recent polls tell us that although there is disappointment with Lee, voters are not angry enough to turn him out. Add in the lack of a boiling-point issue, and you have candidates like Leno looking — but then choosing not to leap. “That doesn’t mean that one could not emerge,” said former Mayor Art Agnos. “I’ve been around long enough to know that someone could come out of the blue.” So far, speculation centers on City Attorney Dennis Herrera, Supervisor David Campos and freshly termed-out Assemblyman Tom Ammiano. Of the three, Stearns sees Herrera as “the most well-positioned” to take on Lee. “Like Leno, he’s a centrist politician, so he’s not scary to people,” Stearns said. “And he has a very strong LGBT base due to all his work on gay marriage.” On the other hand, Herrera would have a tough time raising the millions that Lee is expected to bring to the campaign. And Herrera would have to give up his city attorney’s job even if he lost. “I’m flattered by the political speculation, but I have unfinished business as city attorney and right now, that’s what I’m focused on,” he told us Tuesday. Next up is Ammiano, whose progressive politics still shine with the left but may not fit with the city’s new moderate mood. And at 72, he’s not exactly a fresh new face. “Right now, I’m working on employment starting in January. Something to do with education,” said Ammiano, a one-time schoolteacher. “I’m also involved with the care of my two elder siblings on the East Coast, where I will be heading very, very soon.” Then there’s Campos. He fits the progressive bill, but after losing narrowly to David Chiu for an Assembly seat (thanks partly to some heavy spending by tech types), he shows little enthusiasm for jumping into the fray. “I haven’t thought about it,” Campos said. Some have mentioned Supervisor John Avalos, who came in second to Lee in the 2011 race. But in the wake of an affair with a former aide and an acrimonious split from his wife, City Hall insiders say, he doesn’t appear to have the stomach right now for another mayoral challenge. As for Public Defender Jeff Adachi, despite his solid progressive credentials, his decision to push for pension reform a couple of years back cost him mightily with city unions that could be critical to any mayoral challenge. And anyway, Adachi told us Tuesday that he has no plans to run. How about Agnos? He rode opposition to Lee’s waterfront development plans back to political prominence. However, he reminded us that he’s 76 years old. “People are finally starting to believe me — I’m not running,” Agnos said. “For anything.” Off and running: No sooner was he sworn in Monday than newbie San Francisco Assemblyman David Chiu was being mentioned as a future contender for Assembly speaker — thanks, in part, to the stunning defeat last month of one of the Los Angeles area’s rising Democratic stars. First-term Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra, D-Pacoima, was considered an ascendant leader in the Democratic caucus until he lost by fewer than 500 votes Nov. 4 to a fellow Democrat, political novice Patty Lopez. Chiu’s ability to raise big bucks from the tech industry and others during his rough-and-tumble Assembly campaign against San Francisco Supervisor David Campos certainly proved he could be an asset to the Democratic caucus. Upon being sworn in, he was promptly made assistant speaker pro tem — just a couple of rungs from the top spot. And the future is soon, if not now. Newly installed Speaker Toni Atkins, D-San Diego, has only two years before she’ll be termed out. Whoever succeeds her as Assembly leader — certain to be someone elected under the new 12-year cap — could hold the job for a very long time.San Francisco Cronickle columnists Phillip Matier and Andrew Ross appear Sundays, Mondays and Wednesdays. Matier can be seen on the KPIX TV morning and evening news. He can also be heard on KCBS radio Monday through Friday at 7:50 a.m. and 5:50 p.m. Got a tip? Call (415) 777-8815, or e-mail matierandross@sfchronicle. Twitter: @matierandross
Posted on: Wed, 03 Dec 2014 13:42:42 +0000
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